World Cup 2026: Independent watchdog flags seven betting alert cases despite Fifa all-clear

An independent integrity watchdog has identified seven cases of suspected betting-related irregularities at the 2026 men’s World Cup, including incidents involving Spain, Saudi Arabia and the United States, in findings that directly contradict Fifa’s public stance on the tournament.

The Copenhagen Group, an international network that monitors and combats manipulation in sport, issued seven “yellow alerts” after overseeing betting activity across 104 matches at the World Cup, according to a summary released by the Council of Europe.

Its full report has not yet been published, but details reported by The Athletic highlight three matches and a disciplinary case as the most notable areas of concern, all linked to unusual betting patterns or market behaviour.

Spain-Saudi Arabia VAR delay among highlighted cases

One of the incidents flagged was a three-and-a-half-minute delay in the use of the Video Assistant Referee (VAR) system before a goal by Ferran Torres was disallowed in Spain’s 4-0 victory over Saudi Arabia. The report does not allege wrongdoing but lists the prolonged review as one of the situations associated with suspicious betting activity.

Another focus was a major market on the US cryptocurrency-based prediction platform Polymarket concerning Spain’s group-stage match against Cape Verde, which finished 0-0. Polymarket attracted $4.8m (£3.6m) in bets on Spain not to win that game, a volume considered significant enough to be noted by the watchdog.

The group also highlighted the red card shown to South Africa’s Themba Zwane in the 84th minute of his country’s opening match against Mexico as one of the seven cases attracting a yellow alert.

Questions over Balogun betting market

The Copenhagen Group’s report draws particular attention to a betting market involving United States forward Folarin Balogun.

On 2 July, the same day Balogun was sent off against Bosnia and Herzegovina in the last 32, Polymarket opened a market on the question: “Will Balogun play against Belgium?” That disciplinary issue was not formally clarified by Fifa’s Disciplinary Committee until 5 July, when it confirmed whether his suspension would be lifted.

The watchdog notes that no comparable markets were opened for any of the other 14 players shown red cards during the tournament, none of whom had their suspensions overturned. The group, which operates under the Council of Europe’s Macolin Convention on the manipulation of sports competitions, has formally written to Fifa requesting a written explanation regarding the Balogun case.

The Athletic said it had contacted both Fifa and Polymarket for comment but had not received a response at the time of publication.

Findings clash with Fifa integrity statement

The Copenhagen Group’s conclusions emerged just one day after Fifa’s integrity task force stated on Tuesday that it had found “no suspicious betting activity or match manipulation alerts regarding any game” at the World Cup.

Both the Copenhagen Group and the Council of Europe serve as independent members of that same task force, which was created in 2019 to monitor integrity issues at major tournaments.

In its own statement on Wednesday, the Copenhagen Group said it had issued seven yellow alerts during the tournament. Under its four-tier system, green signifies normal activity, yellow a low-level alert, orange a high-level alert and red the highest level of risk.

A yellow alert is triggered, according to its definition, when “multiple indicators of irregularities” are present, which can include unexplained swings in odds or rumours circulating on social media.

Expert: alerts do not prove match-fixing

Christian Kalb, a betting industry specialist who has previously worked with the Copenhagen Group, told The Athletic that yellow alerts should not be interpreted as conclusive evidence of match-fixing.

“These alerts can be explained by unusual behaviours such as changes in odds or hedging liquidity,” Kalb said. “The volume of betting on the World Cup is enormous, with each match worth billions of pounds, which makes drawing firm conclusions difficult.”

He added: “The main problem lies in conflicts of interest and inside information. Traditional bookmakers may use prediction markets such as Polymarket to hedge risk when everyone is backing the favourite, by taking positions on that favourite not winning as a form of insurance to reduce losses.”

Billions wagered on 2026 tournament

The watchdog’s report says 15 matches were placed under enhanced monitoring, particularly in the final round of group fixtures, and that 12 contentious situations were examined in detail.

The Copenhagen Group estimates the total volume of bets placed on the 2026 World Cup at around $240bn, almost double its estimate for the 2022 tournament in Qatar.