Champions League qualifying: Sturm Graz, Fenerbahce and Red Star backed to press home first-leg leads

Sturm Graz, Fenerbahce and Red Star Belgrade are all strongly positioned to advance in Champions League qualifying this week after convincing first-leg wins left them in control of their respective ties.

Cameroonian betting analyst and journalist Arthur Wandji has highlighted the three fixtures – involving Sturm Graz, Heart of Midlothian, Gornik Zabrze and Larne – as a combined focus for punters ahead of the second legs on 28 and 29 July.

Sturm Graz hold commanding advantage over Hearts

Sturm Graz travel to Scotland with a 4-0 lead after a dominant first-leg victory over Hearts in Austria, a result that leaves them needing only to avoid defeat to progress.

The Austrian side struck as early as the fourth minute in the first meeting and had scored all four of their goals before the hour mark, effectively putting the tie out of reach before the closing stages.

Hearts are playing their first home match in the Champions League in two decades, underlining the scale of the occasion for the Scottish club but also their relative lack of recent experience at this level.

By contrast, Sturm Graz come into the return leg on the back of a consistent European record. They have reached the group stage of continental competitions in four of the last five seasons, a run which underpins their status as clear favourites to finish the job.

Given the scoreline from the first leg and the minimal requirement for Sturm Graz to go through, Wandji sees the Austrian club as having a “net advantage” going into the second leg.

Fenerbahce travel to Poland with slim but solid lead

Fenerbahce also approach their away leg in a favourable position after a 1-0 win over Gornik Zabrze in Istanbul.

The Turkish side’s victory was secured by a free-kick from Talisca in the 37th minute, and they managed to keep a clean sheet across the 90 minutes, denying Gornik Zabrze any significant clear-cut chances.

That result leaves the Polish club needing to score at least once at home to draw level in the tie, while Fenerbahce require only a draw to advance.

Wandji notes that Fenerbahce “controlled the first duel” and gave up very few major opportunities, a pattern that, in his view, points towards another strong performance on the road.

He regards an away win in Poland as consistent with the balance of play seen in the first leg and suggests the Turkish side remain favourites despite being away from home for the decisive match.

Red Star expected to extend dominance over Larne

Red Star Belgrade are in the most commanding position of the three, having beaten Larne 4-0 in Northern Ireland in the first leg of their tie.

The scale of that victory has already laid bare the gap between the two sides before the return meeting in Belgrade, where Red Star are traditionally formidable.

Domestically, Red Star have started their league campaign with two wins from two, collecting six points and reinforcing the impression of a team in form. They have also recently beaten Vojvodina 3-1, underlining the strength of their attacking play.

At home, the Serbian champions typically adopt an attacking approach and are known for creating a high volume of chances, something Wandji expects to continue in this European fixture.

Given their first-leg margin and recent scoring record, he considers “a clear win with at least three goals in the match” the most solid betting option for the return leg in Belgrade.

Odds subject to change

All assessments are based on current form and first-leg scorelines, but Wandji stresses that prices offered by bookmakers are liable to move as kick-off approaches.

The odds mentioned are subject to change.