Banyana Banyana must beat Burkina Faso as Tanzania result shapes quarter-final hopes

South Africa must beat Burkina Faso to have any chance of reaching the Women’s Africa Cup of Nations quarter-finals, but their fate will also depend on the simultaneous Group B match between Ivory Coast and Tanzania.

Banyana Banyana are bottom of the group after losing one of their opening two matches and drawing the other. Desiree Ellis’ side have collected only one point, leaving them in a difficult position before Tuesday’s final round of fixtures.

Ivory Coast lead the group on four points, while Burkina Faso and Tanzania are both on three. South Africa are a point behind the two teams immediately above them, meaning victory at Moulay Rachid Stadium is essential.

The other match, between group leaders Ivory Coast and Tanzania, will be played at the same time. Its result could determine whether South Africa progress or leave the tournament, with their 2027 Women’s World Cup aspirations also at stake.

Ellis has been clear about what her team must deliver in their final group game, saying: “We need a win and goals.”

If South Africa defeat Burkina Faso and Ivory Coast beat Tanzania, Banyana Banyana will finish on four points and qualify for the quarter-finals. Ivory Coast would move to seven points, while Burkina Faso and Tanzania would remain on three.

A draw for Tanzania would create a more complicated outcome. South Africa and Tanzania would both finish on four points if Banyana Banyana win, bringing the relevant tiebreakers into play. Although goal difference would be considered between teams level on points, Tanzania would qualify because of their superior head-to-head points record against South Africa.

The most damaging result for Ellis’ team would be a Tanzania victory. Should the East Africans secure an upset win, South Africa would be eliminated regardless of what happens in their own match against Burkina Faso.

That scenario is the detail that may have been overlooked in the permutations surrounding the final round. Tanzania’s victory would reshape the standings in a way that leaves Banyana Banyana unable to reach the last eight, while also ending their hopes of using the tournament as a route towards the 2027 Women’s World Cup.

South Africa therefore need both a positive result of their own and assistance from Ivory Coast. A win is the only result that keeps their campaign alive, but even three points against Burkina Faso may not be enough unless the outcome in the other fixture goes their way.

The two matches will kick off simultaneously at 22:00 South Africa time on Tuesday.