Arba Minch Kenema face Dire Dawa Kenema on 6 February at 12:00 (GMT) in a league fixture that could shape the lower half of the table. Both sides arrive with mixed form and fragile records, but Dire Dawa’s stronger away performances suggest a tight, tactical contest.
Arba Minch Kenema enter the match on a five-game winless run in the league, with form reading DDLLD. The sequence underlines a team struggling to turn draws into victories while also being prone to decisive defeats. Recent results have stalled any climb up the table and placed pressure on their home fixtures to deliver points.
Dire Dawa Kenema travel with more positive momentum and a last-five record of LWWLW. Three wins in that run, including victories home and away, show a side capable of responding to setbacks. The pattern of alternating wins and defeats also points to inconsistency, but their current trajectory is notably stronger than that of Arba Minch.
Home and away records further underline the contrast. Arba Minch Kenema’s season at home stands at 1 win, 8 draws and 9 defeats. A single home victory from 18 attempts highlights why they are struggling in the league table. Stalemates have been common, but the inability to close out matches has turned their own ground into a source of frustration rather than advantage.
Dire Dawa Kenema’s away statistics are more stable, with 5 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses on the road. An almost balanced record of wins and defeats, combined with a high number of away draws, suggests resilience and an ability to take something from difficult venues. That away form gives Dire Dawa a clear edge heading into this trip.
Goal patterns raise further concerns for the hosts. Arba Minch Kenema have played five league matches this season without scoring a goal. Regular blanks in front of goal have undermined their efforts to climb the standings, especially in tight fixtures where a single chance could have transformed draws into wins. The lack of a reliable goalscorer has become a defining problem.
Dire Dawa Kenema, by contrast, have kept clean sheets in eight league matches this season. That defensive solidity forms the backbone of their campaign and is a critical asset away from home. The ability to shut out opponents has allowed them to take narrow wins and grind out draws, contributing directly to their more favourable league position.
Extremes of scoreline tell the story of both sides’ campaigns. Arba Minch Kenema’s biggest home win this season remains limited at a margin of 0, underlining how rarely they have dominated visiting teams. Their best away victory came with a 1-2 scoreline, suggesting that even in success they have relied on tight, marginal games rather than comfortable wins.
Their heaviest defeats expose their vulnerability. Arba Minch Kenema’s biggest home loss was 0-2, while away they suffered a 3-1 reverse. Conceding multiple goals and failing to respond consistently has left them on the wrong end of too many scorelines, a key factor in their low placement in the table and their current run without victory.
Dire Dawa Kenema have constructed their season around narrow but effective wins. Their biggest success at home came by a 2-0 scoreline, reflecting a secure defensive base and sufficient threat in attack. Away, their largest winning margin has been 1-2, again highlighting tight, controlled performances rather than high-scoring dominance.
Their defeats also reveal where they can be exposed. Dire Dawa’s heaviest home loss was 0-3, a rare occasion when their defence collapsed and they failed to respond. Away from home, a 4-0 defeat stands as their worst result of the season, showing that when the structure breaks, it can do so heavily. However, the overall record indicates that such heavy defeats have been exceptions rather than the rule.
Individual scoring contributions provide another layer. Arba Minch Kenema players listed for this match have collectively scored 0 goals this season for the club. Dire Dawa Kenema’s relevant players have also contributed 0 goals. With no standout scorer emerging from the named individuals, both teams rely on system-based attacks rather than any single prolific forward, placing emphasis on set-pieces and collective movement.
In the league context, this fixture carries weight at both ends of the table. Arba Minch Kenema, hampered by a poor home record and frequent scoring droughts, need points to avoid deeper trouble and to gain any momentum for the remainder of the campaign. With only one home victory all season, every remaining home match becomes critical in the battle for survival or mid-table safety.
Dire Dawa Kenema, with their steadier away form, view this match as an opportunity to strengthen their league position and push toward the upper mid-table or beyond. Their ability to earn results on the road has kept them in touch with teams above them, and another positive outcome here could close gaps or create separation from rivals below.
Tactically, the meeting sets up as a clash between a home side trying to break a damaging streak and an away team comfortable playing cautiously and hitting on limited chances. Arba Minch Kenema’s challenge will be to convert territorial pressure into goals, something they have repeatedly failed to do in matches where they have edged possession. Breaking the pattern of draws and narrow losses at home is essential.
Dire Dawa Kenema are likely to build on their solid defensive foundation and look for moments in transition. With eight clean sheets across the season, they have shown they can sit compact, absorb pressure and rely on a small number of chances to decide matches. If they score first, their record suggests they are well equipped to protect a lead.
Recent form trends point toward a match that could be low scoring but finely balanced. Arba Minch Kenema’s sequence of DDLLD hints at a side often involved in cagey encounters, while Dire Dawa’s LWWLW record shows both their threat and their occasional lapses. Small margins, such as set-piece accuracy or defensive errors, are likely to dictate the outcome.
Psychologically, pressure rests more heavily on the hosts. A poor home record, repeated goalless outings and a slide down the table combine to create a fragile atmosphere. Dire Dawa Kenema can approach the game with greater confidence, knowing their away performances have generally held up and that they possess a proven formula for gaining results on the road.
League dynamics add further significance. For Arba Minch Kenema, dropping more points at home risks being dragged deeper into a relegation battle or being cut adrift from the pack above. For Dire Dawa Kenema, an away win would consolidate their status as one of the more effective travelling sides in the division and could open a path to a higher finish.
The numbers underline the key narrative: Arba Minch Kenema’s lone home win, five matches without scoring and a heaviest home defeat of 0-2 set against Dire Dawa Kenema’s five away victories, eight clean sheets and solid travelling record of 5-8-5. The contest brings together a struggling home side and a robust if unspectacular visitor with a proven defensive record.
All evidence suggests a tense, tightly contested league match with limited clear chances. Arba Minch Kenema must find a way to break their scoring issues and turn their ground into a source of points. Dire Dawa Kenema will aim to extend their respectable away run by leaning on organisation, discipline and efficiency in front of goal.
The key statistics of the players of both teams this season:
- Assists: (Arba Minch Kenema) — 0 assists, (Dire Dawa Kenema) — 0 assists.
- Goalkeepers saves: (Arba Minch Kenema) — 0, (Dire Dawa Kenema) — 0
- Tackles: None (Arba Minch Kenema) — None, None (Dire Dawa Kenema) — None.
- Most encounters won: (Arba Minch Kenema) — 0, (Dire Dawa Kenema) — 0.
- Yellow cards: None (Arba Minch Kenema) — None, None (Dire Dawa Kenema) — None.
- Red cards: None (Arba Minch Kenema) — None, None (Dire Dawa Kenema) — None.
Top 5 scorers this season:
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Team statistics:
The five previous matches played by the teams:
- Arba Minch Kenema — DDLLD
- Dire Dawa Kenema — LWWLW
According to home statistics this season, Arba Minch Kenema scores more goals and concedes more in the following intervals:
| Intervals | Goal Scored, % | Goals conceded, % |
| 0-15 | 22.22% | 23.81% |
| 16-30 | 11.11% | 4.76% |
| 31-45 | 11.11% | 9.52% |
| 46-60 | 33.33% | 19.05% |
| 61-75 | 11.11% | 9.52% |
| 76-90 | 11.11% | 33.33% |
| 91-105 |
Dire Dawa Kenema has the following time frames of scoring and conceding goals:
| Intervals | Goal Scored, % | Goals conceded, % |
| 0-15 | 8.33% | 11.76% |
| 16-30 | 16.67% | 17.65% |
| 31-45 | 8.33% | 23.53% |
| 46-60 | 33.33% | 11.76% |
| 61-75 | 33.33% | 11.76% |
| 76-90 | 23.53% | |
| 91-105 |
Head-to-head stats:
| Teams | Games | Win | Draws | Losses | |||
| H | A | H | A | H | A | ||
| Arba Minch Kenema | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dire Dawa Kenema | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
Probabilities before the match:
| Arba Minch Kenema | Dire Dawa Kenema | |
| 45.5% | Winning the game | 45.5% |
| 67% | Attack potential | 67% |
| 36% | Potential in defense | 36% |
| 40% | Strength against each other | 40% |
| 54% | Goal Potential | 54% |
Summary: the probability of Dire Dawa Kenema winning – 45%, draw – 45%, loss – 10%. Thus Arba Minch Kenema, most likely, loss (loss or draw)
Goal Forecast:Arba Minch Kenema, is likely to score -1.5 goals, Dire Dawa Kenema is likely to score no more than -1.5.
The bookmaker odds for this match:
| Home win | Draw | Away win |
| 0 | 0 | 0 |
Save the date
The match between the teams Arba Minch Kenema and Dire Dawa Kenema will take place on February 06 at 12:00 (GMT) at the stadium .
