Monaco v Marseille: second-half strength could shape Ligue 1 showdown

AS Monaco and Olympique de Marseille meet at Stade Louis II on Sunday in the closing match of the second round of Ligue 1 McDonald’s 2026-27, with a draw priced at 3.83 and at least one goal in each half valued at 1.51.

The south-east France derby will begin at 18:45 GMT, with both teams having made winning starts to the new campaign. Nasser Eddy, a consultant for NCI Sport and presenter of the European Champions League on radio Nostalgie, has assessed the match and identified the main betting angles.

Monaco finished seventh last season and only secured European football at the last moment. They are aiming to restore themselves to the upper reaches of French football, although their transfer business has so far offered little evidence that they have strengthened sufficiently to match those ambitions.

Several important players from last season have departed, including Maghnes Akliouche, Wout Faes, Caio Henrique and Krepin Diatta. Simon Adingra has also returned from his loan spell, while Paul Pogba has left the club after a disappointing stint and has been released. The main arrival highlighted by the article is former FC Nantes striker Matthis Abline.

New head coach Filipe Luis has therefore been working with a relatively limited squad, but Monaco have begun the season positively. They opened their league campaign with a 1-0 victory at Le Havre last Sunday before defeating Zabzre 4-1 in the second leg of their Conference League preliminary tie on Thursday. That result secured their place in the competition’s league phase and followed a 3-2 win in the first leg a week earlier.

The hosts have started each of their three competitive matches at a fast pace. Monaco scored the opening goal inside the first half-hour in every game and led at half-time on each occasion. Their three conceded goals have all arrived after the interval, underlining a clear difference between their first- and second-half performances.

Marseille arrive in Monaco with a squad still being reshaped. The club’s financial restructuring has forced the board to sell, with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Mason Greenwood, Geronimo Rulli and Facundo Medina among the key departures. Their ability to replace those players has been limited, leaving new manager Bruno Genesio with a youthful group that includes academy products such as Tadjidine Mmadi and Keyliane Abdallah, the surprise goalscorer from the opening weekend.

Despite that uncertainty, Marseille made an emphatic start to Ligue 1. They beat RC Strasbourg 4-0 at Stade Velodrome, with a dominant second half turning the game decisively in their favour. That result continued an encouraging pre-season in which they recorded four wins and two defeats from six matches, including a loss against Atletico Madrid.

Marseille have won the second half in each of their five most recent victories, counting the Strasbourg success, suggesting that the team has grown into its matches. They have also enjoyed more than 60% possession in each of their past two games, an indication that Genesio’s style is beginning to take shape.

The fixture is one of the most established in French football. Monaco and Marseille have met 130 times since their first encounter in the 1941-42 season. Marseille hold a narrow overall advantage, with 53 victories to Monaco’s 48, while 29 meetings have ended level.

In league matches played at Monaco, however, the home side have the slight edge. Monaco have won 27 times, compared with 21 Marseille victories, and there have been eight draws. The last four meetings have remained closely balanced, with each club winning at home across the 2024-25 season and the most recent campaign.

Goals have also been a regular feature of the contest. None of the past 25 meetings between the sides has finished 0-0.

Paris Brunner is expected to lead the line for Monaco, while Amine Gouiri will spearhead the Marseille attack. Both forwards have scored in recent days and share qualities such as quick finishing, although they are at different stages of their careers.

The 20-year-old Brunner is working to establish himself and build his reputation at the beginning of his professional journey. Gouiri, 26, is at a pivotal point in his career and faces the responsibility of carrying a depleted Marseille side in a season when he is one of the club’s few senior figures.

The two teams have each impressed on the opening weekend and both have endured difficult transfer windows, making a tight contest appear likely. The draw at 3.83 is presented as the most logical selection, while a bet on Monaco winning the first half and Marseille winning the second is priced at 7.9.

That outcome would also mean there is at least one goal in each half, an option priced at 1.51.

The odds may change.