Bayern Munich tipped for goals as Bundesliga champions begin title defence against VfB Stuttgart

Bayern Munich start their Bundesliga title defence against VfB Stuttgart at the Allianz Arena on Friday, with a 1.55 price attached to the expectation of more than 3.5 goals in the opening match of the German season.

The match, scheduled for 28 August 2026 at 18:30 GMT, will see the reigning champions begin their pursuit of a 36th German league title less than three months after securing their 35th. Nasser Eddy, a consultant for NCI Sport and presenter of the European Champions League on radio Nostalgie, has provided his analysis and predictions for the fixture.

Bayern begin as overwhelming favourites after beating Borussia Dortmund 2-1 in the German Super Cup last Saturday. Dortmund are regarded as the club’s most credible domestic “rival”, although Bayern’s dominance of German football has made genuine competition increasingly difficult.

Vincent Kompany’s side suffered only one defeat in all domestic competitions last season. Their strength has also been evident during pre-season, with only one loss in five preparation matches. That defeat came on 25 July, when Bayern fielded what was described as a second- or even third-choice team.

The club have retained the core of their squad, including England captain Harry Kane and Michael Olise, despite strong interest in the France international from Real Madrid. That continuity is expected to help Bayern cope with the absence of Jamal Musiala, who is unavailable because of illness.

Bayern have scored at least twice in six of their past seven matches in all competitions. However, their attacking strength has not always been matched by defensive control: they have conceded at least once in five of their past six games.

Stuttgart face a difficult test despite finishing fourth in the Bundesliga last season and recording the competition’s second-best attacking record behind Bayern. Their league position also secured direct qualification for the Champions League, which begins soon.

Sebastian Hoeneß’s side opened their German Cup campaign with a 4-0 victory over Hansa Rostock last Friday, but that result offers limited evidence of how they will perform in Munich. The competition, the quality of the opposition and the line-up used were all different.

Stuttgart are also expected to be significantly weakened by injuries. Eight potential starters are unavailable, including pre-season standout Nikolas Nartey, Chris Fuhrich, Dan-Axel Zagadou and Lorenz Assignon.

New signing Dzenan Pejcinovic and his team-mates can nevertheless draw confidence from their recent attacking output. Stuttgart have scored 29 goals in their past seven matches in all competitions, an average of more than four per game, although many of those fixtures came against teams of a considerably lower standard.

They have also made fast starts, taking the lead six times during that run. On each occasion, their opening goal came within the first 30 minutes. Even if they reproduce that pattern against Bayern, however, their prospects of completing a victory remain slim.

The three meetings between the clubs last season produced 14 goals. Bayern won the first Bundesliga encounter 5-0 in early December, then followed it with a 4-2 victory on 19 April. On 23 May, Kompany’s team beat Stuttgart 3-0 in the German Cup final to claim the trophy for the 21st time.

The broader head-to-head record is just as one-sided. In the past 34 meetings since 2010, Bayern have won 29 times, with two draws and only three victories for Stuttgart.

Olise is expected to be one of the central figures once again. After two impressive campaigns, with the second surpassing an already high standard, he has reached another level following his involvement with France at his first World Cup.

Real Madrid’s interest has not persuaded Bayern to consider selling him. The Munich club rejected the possibility of a transfer, viewing Olise as a key player in their attempt to regain the Champions League.

He played a decisive role in Saturday’s German Super Cup victory over Borussia Dortmund, scoring once and providing one assist. His performance means he is expected to be heavily involved again as Bayern open their league campaign.

The prediction is for a comfortable Bayern win, priced at 1.31. Stuttgart are also backed to score, making “OUI” on both teams to find the net a 1.45 selection. The match is expected to contain more than 3.5 goals at 1.55.

Stuttgart’s recent tendency to score first is reflected in a 3.4 price for them to open the scoring. A first goal between the 16th and 30th minutes is priced at 5.8.

Odds may change.