Arsenal’s Community Shield win offers a mixed forecast for Premier League hopes

Arsenal’s emphatic 3-0 victory over Manchester City at the Principality Stadium may have launched their season in impressive fashion, but history suggests their Community Shield triumph could prove a warning rather than a guarantee of Premier League success.

The result gave Mikel Arteta’s side their latest piece of silverware before the league campaign begins, while Manchester City endured a disappointing first competitive test under new manager Enzo Maresca.

Yet City’s poor performance may not be as significant as it appears. In the past three seasons in which Manchester City lost the Community Shield – 2021, 2022 and 2023 – they went on to win the Premier League title.

By contrast, the club failed to win the league in the two most recent campaigns in which they lifted the Community Shield, in 2019 and 2024.

That pattern presents an awkward statistic for Arsenal, who will be hoping to challenge for the title after finishing as runners-up in recent seasons.

The history of the competition is particularly unkind to the Gunners. Arsenal have won the Community Shield 18 times, including nine victories during the Premier League era, but have never gone on to win the league title in any of those seasons.

Their most recent Community Shield victory over Manchester United came in 1998. United responded that season by completing the historic treble.

The figures underline how unusual it is for a team to combine the Community Shield and the Premier League title. The double has been achieved only eight times in the competition’s history.

Manchester City were the most recent club to manage it, in the 2018-19 season. They defeated Chelsea at Wembley through two goals from Sergio Aguero, having previously completed a record-breaking league campaign with 100 points.

Manchester United remain the most successful side in this respect. Under Sir Alex Ferguson, they won both trophies on five occasions, in the 1993-94, 1996-97, 2007-08, 2008-09 and 2010-11 seasons.

Arsenal captain Martin Odegaard, who scored the third goal in Cardiff, is confident the team can avoid the historical trend. He said the side had “shown our level and want to win everything”.

Arteta also acknowledged the scale of the task but believes Arsenal are better equipped to succeed than before.

“We know how difficult the task is, that is why we have not won the title again,” he said. “There is more confidence now, we know how to win and what it takes to achieve the title, and playing in this way is incredibly impressive.”

Arsenal begin their Premier League campaign at home to Coventry City on Friday evening. They will be determined to show that this Community Shield victory marks the beginning of a title-winning season, rather than another indication that history may be against them.