Ballon d’Or 2026: Harry Kane leads contenders to succeed Ousmane Dembele

The 2026 Ballon d’Or is expected to be one of the most open contests for years, with Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe emerging as the leading candidates after the World Cup in the United States, Canada and Mexico.

The 70th edition of the France Football award will be held in London rather than its traditional venue, the Theatre du Chatelet in Paris, as a tribute to Stanley Matthews, the first winner of the prize.

The outcome will be judged primarily on individual performances, honours won and fair play during the season. A World Cup year usually gives the tournament considerable influence, although only Lionel Messi in 2010 and Cristiano Ronaldo in 2014 have won the award in the 21st century without reaching at least the World Cup final.

Kane and Mbappe both reached the semi-finals, but their individual records have placed them at the head of the betting. Mbappe endured a trophyless campaign with Real Madrid and France, yet finished as the leading scorer in La Liga with 25 goals, the Champions League with 15 and the World Cup with 10. His World Cup tally took him to 22 goals, making him the competition’s all-time leading scorer.

Kane, meanwhile, won the European Golden Boot after scoring 36 goals in 31 Bundesliga appearances for Bayern Munich, as well as 14 in the Champions League. He also made a major impact for England at the World Cup, scoring six goals in seven matches.

Behind the leading pair are several World Cup winners and finalists, including eight-time winner Lionel Messi and Spain captain Rodri. Messi, aged 39, played a symbolic role for his country but his club season outside Europe has weakened his prospects. Rodri was similarly influential for Spain, although his club campaign lacked distinction. Both therefore have less chance of claiming the 12-kilogram trophy again.

Fabian Ruiz is the only player among the 30 nominees to have won both the World Cup and Champions League, but his individual season was underwhelming. Eight of his club team-mates were also nominated, a record, including Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, who helped secure a second consecutive European Cup but missed the World Cup.

Defending champion Ousmane Dembele had an injury-affected season with PSG. Although decisive late in the campaign, he played in Mbappe and Michael Olise’s shadow with France. Olise impressed for Bayern Munich and led the World Cup assists chart with seven, but may lack the profile to win.

Jude Bellingham and Erling Haaland also impressed in North America, but their trophyless club and international seasons count against them. Lamine Yamal recorded six goals and four assists in 10 Champions League appearances and 16 goals and 11 assists in 28 La Liga outings for FC Barcelona, but was less influential than expected at the World Cup. Ferran Torres’ winning goal in the final may not be enough, given he was not an automatic starter for FC Barcelona.

1xBet odds for the projected top 10

Harry Kane 1.5; Kylian Mbappe 6; Rodri 7.5; Lamine Yamal 5; Lionel Messi 29; Michael Olise 21; Ousmane Dembele 26; Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 11; Fabian Ruiz 26; Jude Bellingham 26.

The prediction is for Kane to win, with Mbappe second and Rodri third, ahead of Messi. Kane’s titles and Bayern Munich’s run to the Champions League semi-finals give him the advantage. The odds may change.