European boycott threat puts FIFA’s World Cup business model under pressure

A potential boycott of the World Cup by Europe’s 55 football associations could cause a major financial shock for FIFA, with broadcasters, sponsors and host venues all expected to reassess the value of the tournament.

UEFA members have unanimously agreed to boycott upcoming international competitions if FIFA president Gianni Infantino proceeds with plans to sell stakes in the World Cup to private-sector investors, according to French network RMC.

Although threats of boycotts rarely develop into full-scale action, the prospect of a World Cup without Europe’s leading national teams raises serious questions about the tournament’s commercial strength.

FIFA generated about $15bn in revenue during the 2023-26 cycle, almost twice as much as in the previous period. The men’s World Cup alone accounted for 85% of that income.

Sports economist Christophe Lepetit identifies three main sources of World Cup revenue: television rights, which contribute about one-third of the total, sponsorship, and ticketing and hospitality, each accounting for between 22% and 24%.

Europe is central to all three areas because of its sporting influence and commercial power. European club competitions, particularly the UEFA Champions League, also help create global stars such as Lionel Messi, Erling Haaland, Cristiano Ronaldo, Rodri and Kylian Mbappe.

Those players then bring their international profiles to FIFA competitions, helping to attract viewers, sponsors and supporters around the world.

“The value of the product FIFA is selling would fall considerably if the major European nations were absent,” Lepetit said.

“Without insulting anyone, if you replace Germany with Curacao or France with Cape Verde, I am not entirely sure it would generate the same interest from the media, sponsors or supporters.”

Broadcasters would probably be the first commercial partners to seek new terms. Lepetit estimates that the value of World Cup television rights in France could fall from the €120m paid by M6 for the 2026 edition to about €12m if the French national team were not involved.

Sponsorship agreements would also lose value, while ticketing and hospitality income could be affected. European supporters are among the biggest spenders when attending major sporting events, making their absence particularly significant for FIFA and tournament organisers.

Lepetit described a European withdrawal as a “tsunami for FIFA’s economic model”.

Infantino is also seeking to establish a new commercial company to sell the marketing and commercial rights to FIFA competitions. That company has been valued at about €17.5bn, although the figure is partly based on the recent financial performance of the World Cup.

At the latest tournament, six of the eight quarter-finalists were European teams, underlining the continent’s sporting importance to the competition.

Lepetit warned that the proposed company’s valuation could fall sharply if Europe stayed away.

“The value attached to your company would not be €17.5bn. It could become €10bn, €12bn, €8bn or even less. Everything is connected and closely intertwined,” he said.

He believes Infantino would not have the means to offset such a decline.

However, a boycott would also carry a heavy cost for France and the other European countries involved. Their football associations would lose part of their commercial income, while sponsors and sportswear manufacturers could seek to renegotiate existing contracts.

Players would also be denied the opportunity to compete in the most prestigious international tournament.

“Everyone ultimately loses: the supporters, the players, the national associations, UEFA, the confederations and FIFA,” Lepetit said.