Negelle Arsi vs Mekelle Kenema: Preview – Team News, Line-ups, Prediction and Tips | February 05 12:00 GMT

Negelle Arsi host Mekelle Kenema on 5 February at 12:00 GMT in a league fixture that pits two struggling sides against each other, with both teams looking to reverse poor recent form and stabilise their position in the table.

Negelle Arsi come into the match on the back of a five-game winless run, with recent results reading DLLDD. The sequence underlines their difficulty in turning draws into victories and in producing consistent attacking output in the final third. Despite their slide, their overall home record this season remains solid: 9 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats show that they are generally far stronger on their own ground than away.

Mekelle Kenema arrive with similarly troubling form, having recorded LDLLD in their last five league games. That run has kept them anchored in the lower reaches of the table and underlined recurrent issues both in defence and in attack. Their away record this season – 3 wins, 10 draws and 5 losses – suggests they are hard to beat on the road but struggle to convert tight contests into three points.

Negelle Arsi’s home campaign has been defined by narrow margins. Their biggest home win so far is 2-0, while their heaviest home defeat has been 0-1. Those figures indicate a side that keeps games tight, relies on defensive organisation and often tries to edge matches by a single goal. Away from home, Negelle Arsi’s best result was a 3-0 victory, showing they are capable of incisive counter-attacking when conditions suit. Their biggest away loss, 2-0, again reflects that even in defeat they tend not to be heavily beaten.

Mekelle Kenema’s season shows a similar pattern of close scorelines. Their best home victory has been 2-1, while their most convincing away success came with a 2-0 scoreline. Defeats have also largely been by single-goal margins: their biggest home loss is 1-3, and their worst away defeat 2-1. That profile points to a team frequently competitive in matches but lacking the extra edge in both penalty areas to secure sustained winning runs.

Goal-scoring efficiency has been a key concern for Negelle Arsi. They have failed to score in 9 league matches this season, an issue that has cost them points in tight games and kept them from pushing higher in the standings. The inability to break down organised defences has left them vulnerable to dropped points, particularly in fixtures they were expected to win at home.

Mekelle Kenema, by contrast, have shown more resilience at the back in several fixtures, having kept clean sheets in 6 matches this season. Those shutouts demonstrate that when their defensive structure is intact and concentration levels remain high, they can frustrate opponents and pick up valuable points. However, the lack of a consistent attacking threat means those clean sheets have not always translated into victories.

The league table context increases the stakes. Both Negelle Arsi and Mekelle Kenema are fighting to avoid being pulled deeper into the lower half, and any slip could leave them closer to the relegation battle. With both clubs struggling to win, a draw would do little to ease pressure, while a victory could provide crucial momentum as the season enters its decisive phase.

Negelle Arsi’s home record offers some encouragement for the hosts. Nine home wins imply that when they take the initiative and score first, they are generally efficient at protecting leads. The relatively small number of home defeats also suggests that even during poor runs of form, their home ground remains a difficult venue for visiting sides. Their task is to reconnect with the intensity and compact shape that have underpinned those positive results.

Mekelle Kenema’s away profile is shaped by draws. Ten stalemates away from home highlight their capacity to stay in games but also an inability to turn pressure into goals. This pattern could push them towards a cautious approach in Negelle, focusing on defensive stability and looking to exploit mistakes rather than committing large numbers forward. If they manage to score first, their track record of tight games suggests they can make life difficult for the hosts.

Recent form points to a contest likely to be decided by fine details. Negelle Arsi’s DLLDD run contains multiple games in which they avoided defeat but could not secure the winner. Mekelle Kenema’s LDLLD streak shows that, although they occasionally pick up points, they have found it hard to arrest negative momentum. Both sets of players will be aware that a poor start could quickly erode confidence.

From a tactical perspective, Negelle Arsi are expected to seek territorial control early, using their familiarity with the home pitch to press high and test Mekelle Kenema’s ability to play out from the back. Their challenge will be to convert possession into clear chances, something they have failed to achieve too often, as underlined by their nine goalless performances this campaign.

Mekelle Kenema’s likely response will be a compact defensive block, aiming to protect the central areas and invite Negelle Arsi to play in front of them. Given that they have achieved six clean sheets this season, they have a proven structure for closing down space and restricting opponents to half-chances. Their attacking plan may centre on quick transitions and set-pieces, areas where tight, low-scoring games can be decided.

Psychologically, both sides carry the weight of recent results. A sequence of draws and defeats can create pressure in front of goal, with players snatching at chances or opting for safer passes instead of decisive actions. For Negelle Arsi, an early goal could transform the mood in the stands and on the pitch. For Mekelle Kenema, with a tendency to draw away from home, the priority will be to quieten the game, slow the tempo and prevent the hosts from building rhythm.

Previous score patterns this season underline that a high-scoring thriller is less likely than a controlled, tactical contest. Negelle Arsi’s biggest wins and losses have all come with relatively modest scorelines, as have those of Mekelle Kenema. Both sets of statistics suggest that the match could hinge on a single moment of quality or a defensive lapse, rather than on sustained attacking dominance.

Discipline and concentration may prove decisive. Teams that are involved in many tight matches can be punished heavily by late lapses, particularly from set-pieces or counter-attacks. Negelle Arsi’s home supporters will expect focus from the first whistle to the last, while Mekelle Kenema must manage the game intelligently to avoid being drawn into unnecessary risks.

The broader league narrative gives added importance to this fixture. With the campaign moving towards its latter stages, dropped points cannot easily be recovered. Negelle Arsi need to convert home draws into wins if they are to move clear of danger and potentially push towards mid-table security. Mekelle Kenema require a statement result away from home to arrest their LDLLD run and show that they can rise above the relegation conversation.

The defensive numbers for both sides point towards a match where clean sheets will be heavily targeted. Negelle Arsi’s tight home defeats and modest losing margins mean that if they score first, they will likely trust their back line to protect the advantage. Mekelle Kenema, buoyed by six clean sheets this season and a strong record of away draws, can approach the game confident in their ability to frustrate.

Supporters and neutral observers alike will be watching for signs that either side can break its current cycle. For Negelle Arsi, a return to the kind of home displays that produced nine victories would reaffirm their status as a dangerous host. For Mekelle Kenema, finding a way to turn their resilient away profile into a win rather than another draw would significantly shift the outlook of their season.

Negelle Arsi vs Mekelle Kenema, 5 February at 12:00 GMT, therefore carries implications far beyond a single league fixture. It offers Negelle Arsi the chance to harness home advantage and end a five-match winless streak, while giving Mekelle Kenema an opportunity to prove that their series of narrow defeats and draws can finally be turned into a much-needed away victory. In a league framed by small margins and tight scorelines, this encounter is poised to be another tense, finely balanced contest with meaningful consequences for both clubs.

The key statistics of the players of both teams this season:

• Assists: (Negelle Arsi) — 0 assists, (Mekelle Kenema) — 0 assists.
• Goalkeepers saves: (Negelle Arsi) — 0, (Mekelle Kenema) — 0
• Tackles: None (Negelle Arsi) — None, None (Mekelle Kenema) — None.
• Most encounters won: (Negelle Arsi) — 0, (Mekelle Kenema) — 0.
• Yellow cards: None (Negelle Arsi) — None, None (Mekelle Kenema) — None.
• Red cards: None (Negelle Arsi) — None, None (Mekelle Kenema) — None.

Top 5 scorers this season:

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3. (0, )
4. (0, )
5. (0, )

Team statistics:

The five previous matches played by the teams:

• Negelle Arsi — DLLDD
• Mekelle Kenema — LDLLD

According to home statistics this season, Negelle Arsi scores more goals and concedes more in the following intervals:

Mekelle Kenema has the following time frames of scoring and conceding goals:

Head-to-head stats:

Probabilities before the match:

Summary: the probability of Mekelle Kenema winning – 10%, draw – 45%, loss – 45%. Thus Negelle Arsi, most likely, win (win or draw)

Goal Forecast:Negelle Arsi, is likely to score -1.5 goals, Mekelle Kenema is likely to score no more than -1.5.

The bookmaker odds for this match:

Save the date

The match between the teams Negelle Arsi and Mekelle Kenema will take place on February 05 at 12:00 (GMT) at the stadium .