As the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations enters the knockout phase, fresh data-driven projections have reshaped the title race, with Morocco emerging as the clearest favourite to lift the trophy on home soil.
Updated simulations released ahead of the round of 16 underline how the final group-stage results have altered competitive balance, reinforcing the Atlas Lions’ status as the team to beat.
Morocco’s emphatic 3–0 victory over Zambia proved pivotal, not only in sporting terms but also in how advanced prediction models now assess their prospects.
While performances earlier in the group stage were measured rather than dominant, analytical indicators continue to highlight Morocco’s tactical stability, squad depth and familiarity with conditions as decisive advantages.
Hosting the tournament has further amplified their statistical edge, particularly in simulations that factor in match pathways and venue influence.
Behind Morocco, the chasing pack remains tightly clustered, though opinions differ on the most credible threat.
Senegal’s consistency and physical authority have kept them firmly in contention, while Algeria and Egypt are rated highly for their experience and tournament pedigree.
Nigeria, Côte d’Ivoire and Cameroon are still viewed as dangerous outsiders, capable of shifting momentum if they hit peak form during the elimination rounds.
What stands out in the updated forecasts is the growing gap between the frontrunner and the rest. One model suggests a competitive but balanced race among several heavyweights, while another sharply elevates Morocco’s chances above all rivals.
Both, however, agree on one key point: lower-ranked teams face a steep uphill task and would require exceptional circumstances to mount a genuine title challenge.
As the round of 16 unfolds across Moroccan venues, the numbers suggest that the tournament is Morocco’s to lose.
Whether the data holds firm under knockout pressure will define the final narrative of AFCON 2025.
Updated AFCON 2025 title predictions
Opta
• Morocco 22.82%
• Algeria 13.64%
• Senegal 13.62%
• Egypt 13.26%
• Nigeria 10.09%
Football Meets Data
• Morocco 40%
• Senegal 20%
• Algeria 8%
• Nigeria 5%
• Egypt 5%
