Springboks seize 29-24 win as luck finally turns their way against All Blacks

A moving man will surely meet his luck.

At 1-1 in the series, FNB Stadium provided a fitting stage for the third Test of rugby’s Greatest Rivalry. Nearly 90,000 spectators watched the Springboks beat the All Blacks 29-24 in a contest staged with the scale and spectacle of a Super Bowl.

South Africa deserved the victory, but they were also helped by a series of crucial moments that fell in their favour.

That should not be confused with saying the Springboks were fortunate to win or that New Zealand were denied victory. Rather, circumstances repeatedly opened doors for South Africa, and they were ready to walk through them.

Perhaps, after years of watching this rivalry unfold, it is finally the Springboks’ turn to benefit from the bounce of the ball.

FNB Stadium has not traditionally been a happy hunting ground for South Africa against New Zealand, and the omens appeared unhelpful from the start. Supporters had their rituals, traditions and superstitions, while even the customary lucky flyover failed to arrive.

The early stages seemed to suggest that one might be needed. New Zealand controlled the match, while South Africa struggled to find their rhythm. Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu was sent to the sin bin, and Ardie Savea scored twice inside the opening 30 minutes to become the defining figure on the field.

Savea was forced off with a shoulder injury before half-time, a moment that significantly altered the contest.

Injuries have shaped this series more than the flyovers or the analysis of scrum footage. Savea is New Zealand’s Siya Kolisi: a world-class loose forward and an influential leader whose importance extends well beyond carries, tackles and turnovers.

He had already scored twice and was imposing himself on the match. It is impossible to know whether New Zealand would have won had he remained on the pitch, but South Africa clearly benefited from his absence.

The departure of Cheslin Kolbe created another unexpected twist. Losing one of their most dangerous players could hardly be described as good fortune, yet the reshuffle that followed arguably gave the Springboks greater balance. Manie Libbok came on and South Africa began to look more settled.

Libbok was then given a reprieve of his own when Tupou Vaa’i knocked on close to the goal line, ending what appeared likely to become a straightforward try-scoring opportunity.

In retrospect, Rassie Erasmus may look like a tactical genius. But he did not manufacture the injuries, errors or other circumstances that shaped the match. His achievement was having a squad prepared well enough to respond when those opportunities appeared.

Preparation allowed South Africa to make use of favourable fortune.

Will Jordan’s kick out on the full was another decisive moment. FNB Stadium has an unusually short in-goal area, which proved advantageous on this occasion. Even so, Jordan’s mistake did not win the match for the Springboks.

South Africa still had to turn territory into pressure and pressure into points. Luck does not win scrums, nor does it score 20-metre maul tries. The Springboks continued to do the work required to take control.

An All Blacks team of the past might have closed out a match in which South Africa only moved in front late in the second half. For years, South African supporters knew how this story usually ended. Their team could dominate New Zealand for 60 or 70 minutes, lead on the scoreboard and believe the outcome might finally be different.

Then one opening would appear, and New Zealand would take it.

At FNB Stadium, the All Blacks had that opportunity again. This time, they could not shut the door.

There was a period when every loose pass seemed to find a New Zealand hand, every 50-50 decision preceded an important score and every mistake that might have gone unpunished changed the outcome of a Test.

It felt like luck belonged to the All Blacks.

Perhaps the reality was that New Zealand were simply an outstanding team, consistently putting themselves in positions where fortune could be exploited. Now South Africa may be doing the same.

“A moving man will surely meet his luck.”

After so many years of watching the All Blacks claim the crucial bounce when it mattered most, perhaps it is finally the Springboks’ turn. Or perhaps this is simply what being the best team in the world looks like from the other side.

Courtney Jameson and Chris Nkomo run the @dummyswitchpod and are part of KickOff’s Bomb Squad and Tap ’n Go team. They can be followed on X.