Real Madrid backed to edge Villarreal as 3.4 correct-score tip attracts interest

Real Madrid will look to recover from their 2-1 derby defeat by Atletico de Madrid when they host Villarreal in La Liga on Saturday, 10 October 2026 at 19:00 GMT. The fourth-placed hosts have 15 points and are six points behind FC Barcelona, while Villarreal sit ninth on eight points.

Cameroonian sports betting expert and journalist Arthur Wandji expects Real Madrid to respond at home, with a grouped correct-score bet of 2-1, 3-1 or 4-1 available at odds of 3.4.

Team news and form

Real Madrid have been strong at the Bernabeu this season, recording convincing home wins over Malaga (4-0), Real Sociedad (4-1) and Rayo Vallecano (4-1). However, they will be without Kylian Mbappe, who has scored seven Liga goals this season but is sidelined by a left-knee injury.

Jose Mourinho will therefore need greater attacking contributions from Vinicius Jr, Rodrygo and the rest of his squad. The hosts also have defensive absences, with Dean Huijsen suspended and Raul Asencio unavailable because of injury.

Real Madrid have won their past four Liga meetings with Villarreal. The visitors arrive in better recent form after ending a run of five matches without a victory with successive 3-1 wins against Malaga and Levante.

Pape Gueye leads Villarreal’s scoring charts with three goals. Alberto Moleiro has contributed two goals and three assists, while Nicolas Pepe, Gerard Moreno and Georges Mikautadze provide further attacking options. Villarreal must nevertheless overturn four consecutive Liga defeats by Real Madrid if they are to take anything from the Bernabeu.

Recent form is Real Madrid: defeat, victory, victory, victory, defeat; Villarreal: victory, victory, defeat, defeat, defeat.

Key statistics and predictions

Real Madrid have scored 18 goals in seven league matches, compared with Villarreal’s 13, averaging 2.57 and 1.86 goals per game respectively. They have also registered 99 shots to Villarreal’s 82.

Villarreal average 7.3 corners per match in La Liga, narrowly ahead of Real Madrid’s seven. Matches involving Villarreal produce 11 corners on average, while Real Madrid’s home games reach approximately 12. Villarreal have exceeded 9.5 total corners in four of their seven league matches, and Real Madrid have gone above that line in 57% of their games.

The visitors have conceded 12 goals, or 1.71 per match, compared with Real Madrid’s eight, at a rate of 1.14. The recommended selections are more than 9.5 corners at 1.48, Real Madrid to win at 1.36, Real Madrid to record more than 5.5 corners at 1.35, and more than 2.5 goals at 1.26.

The 2-1, 3-1 or 4-1 correct-score combination reflects Real Madrid’s stronger attack, while Villarreal’s ability to score away from home makes a goal for the visitors plausible. They drew 2-2 at Atletico and Racing Santander, while Real Madrid won 2-0 at Villarreal in January 2026 and 3-1 at the Bernabeu in October 2025.

Vinicius Jr is also tipped to score at odds of 2.1. With Mbappe absent, the Brazilian is expected to have a more prominent attacking role and face a Villarreal defence that has already conceded 12 goals.

Odds may change.