# Morocco’s Women’s AFCON progress could hinge on final-day goal difference

Despite winning both of their opening matches, Morocco must still avoid defeat by two goals or more against Senegal on Monday to guarantee their place in the quarter-finals of the 2026 Women’s Africa Cup of Nations.

The hosts have made a perfect start to Group A, collecting six points without conceding and scoring five goals. They began with a 4-0 victory over Kenya, including two goals from Ibtissam Jraidi, before edging past Algeria 1-0 thanks to Sanaa Mssoudy’s 84th-minute winner.

That record has left Morocco top of the group and in a strong position, but their qualification has not yet been confirmed. Senegal and Algeria both have three points and can still finish level with the Atlas Lionesses after the final round of matches.

Morocco will face Senegal, while Algeria will meet Kenya, who have already lost both of their group games.

If Senegal beat Morocco and Algeria defeat Kenya, all three of the leading teams would finish on six points. In that situation, the teams would not be separated by their overall goal difference. Instead, the regulations would use only the results from matches between the three teams, excluding their games against Kenya.

Algeria would currently hold the advantage in that mini-league. They beat Senegal 2-0 but lost 1-0 to Morocco, giving them a goal difference of plus one in the relevant head-to-head matches.

Morocco’s final position would then depend on the margin of defeat against Senegal. A narrow loss, such as 1-0, would leave Morocco above Senegal in the mini-table and would be enough to send the hosts through to the last eight.

However, defeat by two goals or more would change the head-to-head goal difference in Senegal’s favour. Morocco would then drop to third among the three teams, meaning elimination despite having won six points from their three matches.

Such an outcome appears unlikely given Morocco’s performances so far. The hosts, runners-up in the previous two editions of the competition, have been unbeaten and dominant in their opening matches. Nevertheless, the possibility remains mathematically real until the final fixtures are played.

A draw against Senegal would remove the danger, while a Morocco victory would guarantee qualification regardless of the result between Algeria and Kenya. The decisive matches are scheduled for 3 August, with Algeria facing Kenya in Rabat.