Kane takes Ballon d’Or as Yamal wins overwhelming support from fans

Harry Kane won the 2026 Ballon d’Or on Monday, but Lamine Yamal emerged as the clear choice of the international public, receiving 64% of the backing in Betfair data.

Kane’s official victory matched the leading predictions before the ceremony, with Kylian Mbappe finishing second and Yamal third. That ranking was decided by the expert panel of France Football, but figures from the global betting and analytics platform showed a very different picture among supporters.

The Barcelona and Spain winger attracted 64% of the public support recorded by Betfair, placing him well ahead of every other contender. Kane was second with 17%, while Mbappe received 6%.

Yamal’s share was more than three times the combined total of Kane and Mbappe, despite both players finishing above him in the official Ballon d’Or standings. He also collected more support than all the other candidates put together: the remaining contenders accounted for 36%, compared with Yamal’s 64%.

The Betfair figures are not based simply on fans selecting their preferred player in an informal poll. Users commit money and resources to the outcome they believe is most likely, meaning the data reflects a firm expectation that their chosen candidate will win.

The results therefore indicated a strong public belief that Yamal deserved to claim his first award as the world’s best player.

The seven leading candidates accounted for 96% of the total trading volume, while players including Michael Olise, Jude Bellingham and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia each received less than 1%.

Kane led the forecasts throughout the season

Betfair’s probability tracker had Kane as the leading candidate for most of the campaign. He was the favourite at 12 of the 15 points analysed between March and the awards ceremony.

Yamal topped the forecast on only two occasions – in March and on 6 October, when his estimated probability reached 34.71%. Mbappe was favourite once, at the start of July during the World Cup.

Across the year, Kane’s average level of support in the probability model was 25.7%, compared with 15.13% for Yamal and 9.38% for Mbappe.

The contrast between Yamal’s forecast position and his public support was particularly marked. Although his average probability of winning was 15.13%, he received 64% of the backing recorded by Betfair – more than four times as much.

The figures highlight a clear divide between the official result and public opinion. Kane dominated the analytical forecasts, statistics and honours, while Yamal captured the imagination of supporters, who preferred the young Spanish winger’s more exciting style of play to Kane’s effective but less spectacular performances.