France’s Nations League quarter-final hopes hinge on final-day Turkey test

France’s Nations League campaign could end at the group stage after their 3-1 defeat by Italy left them exposed ahead of Sunday’s decisive meeting with Turkey.

Zinedine Zidane’s side had travelled to face Italy on Thursday hoping to secure top spot in Group A, but surrendered an early lead and suffered their first defeat since the manager took charge.

Michael Olise put France ahead, but Italy responded with three goals at San Siro to take control of the group.

Both teams have 10 points, although Italy lead on goal difference, with a mark of +5 compared with France’s +3. France remain in the stronger position before their final match in Bordeaux and will reach the quarter-finals if they avoid defeat against Turkey.

A draw would be enough to secure qualification regardless of the result between Italy and Belgium, which will be played at the same time in Brussels.

France could also progress despite losing to Turkey, provided Belgium do not beat Italy. However, a combination of results would send Zidane’s team out of the competition.

How France could be eliminated

A defeat would leave France on 10 points. If Belgium beat Italy, they would move to 12 points, finish top of the group and claim one of the quarter-final places.

That result would leave France and Italy level on 10 points and competing for second place. Under the Nations League regulations, the first tie-breaker between teams level on points is the number of points gained in their head-to-head matches.

Italy would hold the advantage after taking four points from their two games against France, having won one and drawn the other. France have collected only one point from those fixtures.

Italy would therefore finish second and qualify for the quarter-finals, while France would drop to third and be eliminated at the group stage.

The equation facing France is consequently straightforward: a draw against Turkey guarantees progress, but defeat would become damaging if Belgium won in Brussels.

France may also be boosted by the potential return of captain Kylian Mbappe. He scored the winning goal in the first meeting with Turkey and Zidane is waiting to see whether he can restore the forward to his squad for the crucial match in Bordeaux on Sunday.

The only elimination scenario for France is:

– France lose to Turkey. – Belgium beat Italy. – France finish third behind Italy on the head-to-head tie-breaker.

The final group matches are scheduled for 15 November 2026.