Springbok coach Rassie Erasmus believes the third and fourth Tests will determine the outcome of the Greatest Rivalry Series against the All Blacks, as South Africa prepare for Saturday’s fourth Test in Baltimore.
Erasmus has once again selected a familiar-looking side, sticking with the approach that has shaped South Africa’s recent success in major series and tournaments. The Springboks have made only minimal changes to their team for the third consecutive Test.
That policy reflects a blueprint used by Erasmus during the British and Irish Lions series in 2021 and the knockout stages of the 2023 Rugby World Cup. On both occasions, South Africa relied on a settled group, with alterations largely forced by injury or a decline in form.
Speaking to the media in the United States, Erasmus said he had long viewed the latter stages of the series as decisive.
“I’m not saying I’m correct and I’m not saying that’s the way to do it, but we’ve always found that game three and four, that’s where the series gets won or lost,” said Erasmus.
“You could lose the first two matches, but then if you win number three and four.”
The Springboks’ approach earlier in the season was notably different. During the home leg of the Nations Championship, when they faced England, Scotland and Wales, Erasmus rotated his squad extensively. The aim was to give every player an opportunity while also managing workloads and preserving energy.
“We felt gas in the tank is probably something, and that’s why we managed the guys so much in the Nations Championship,” Erasmus noted.
“We’ve really chopped and changed a lot this year; really a lot of players will be given opportunity,” he noted.
The importance of the series against New Zealand, however, meant a return to a more settled selection strategy. Erasmus wanted to build continuity and use the experience developed by the group during previous high-pressure campaigns.
“We certainly use, or have experience as a group, about touring like the Lions series and things like that,” he said.
“We felt that we will probably start to get continuity in games two, three, and four in the series.”
The plan did not begin perfectly. New Zealand won the opening Test at Ellis Park, giving the All Blacks an early advantage in the contest. Erasmus, though, was not overly concerned by that result, pointing to the circumstances surrounding the first match.
“Game one is probably some guys just coming back from injury… and that’s where they play their first game after long injuries,” he explained.
The goal, he said, was for South Africa to reach their best level in the third and fourth Tests while maintaining stability in the side.
“Peaking, hopefully, at game three and four was always the plan, and try and keep continuity, because it’s not often that you get the opportunity to try and win a series against New Zealand,” Erasmus said.
The Springboks now have the chance to move 3-1 ahead in the series in Baltimore on Saturday. Victory would provide a strong endorsement of Erasmus’s long-term strategy for the Greatest Rivalry Series.
Kick-off is at 23:00 South Africa time.
