Nicolas Jackson’s Aston Villa revival raises fresh questions for Chelsea

Nicolas Jackson’s return to form at Aston Villa continued with two goals against Manchester City on Saturday, helping Unai Emery’s side inflict the Citizens’ first defeat of the Premier League season.

The 25-year-old now has seven goals in 11 appearances for Villa, having reunited with Emery, who previously coached him at Villarreal. His scoring record represents a striking turnaround for a forward once regarded as unreliable in front of goal.

The data from FotMob also suggests Jackson is already offering Aston Villa more than Ollie Watkins, the club favourite who left during the summer.

Jackson is averaging 19.6 sprints per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season, compared with Watkins’ 13.8 in 2025-26. That is 5.8 more sprints per game, while the pair cover almost the same distance: Jackson averages 10.4km per 90 minutes, compared with 10.3km for Watkins.

The figures indicate that Jackson is not simply running more than his predecessor, but is operating at greater speed.

He is also averaging 2.5 successful dribbles per 90 minutes, the highest rate among all Premier League forwards. Watkins finished 2025-26 with 0.8 dribbles per 90 minutes, ranking 15th.

Jackson’s expected assists (xA) rate is another area in which he currently leads the comparison. His figure of 0.9 places him fourth among forwards, whereas Watkins ended last season in 17th position.

A different role under Emery

Jackson’s departure from Chelsea had understandable sporting reasons. Across two seasons under Mauricio Pochettino and Enzo Maresca, he underperformed his expected goals (xG), scoring 6.9 goals fewer than the model indicated.

Since the start of the current campaign under Emery, however, he has exceeded his xG by two goals.

The most significant contrast comes in his dribbling figures. Jackson has completed 2.5 successful dribbles per 90 minutes under Emery, compared with 0.7 under Maresca a rate 3.5 times higher. It is perhaps the clearest statistical indication that Maresca’s approach did not suit Jackson’s strengths.

Jackson has recorded 22 assists in 174 appearances for Villarreal, Chelsea, Bayern Munich and Aston Villa, averaging one every eight matches. During his two seasons at Chelsea, he ranked eighth and 10th among forwards for expected assists. After only seven Premier League matches for Villa, he is now fourth.

The numbers will need to be sustained across a full season. Jackson has never scored in more than three consecutive Premier League matches during his 72 appearances in the competition.

Even so, the evidence poses a clear question. If Jackson could produce 15 goals and assists in 30 Premier League matches under a manager who did not fully believe in him, what might he achieve under a coach who has made him central to the project?