Barcelona seek to extend dominance as Madrid launch Mourinho-era challenge

Nasser Eddy, a consultant for NCI Sport and presenter of the European Champions League on Nostalgie radio, expects Barcelona to retain the La Liga title despite a major rebuild at Real Madrid.

La Liga 2026-27, the 96th edition of Spain’s top flight, began over the weekend of 15-16 August, with four of the opening round’s 10 matches played. Sevilla secured a 2-1 victory over Rayo Vallecano, while last season’s third-placed side Villarreal were held to a 2-2 draw away to newly promoted Racing Santander.

As has so often been the case in recent decades, the title race is expected to become a contest between Spain’s two dominant clubs, Real Madrid CF and FC Barcelona. The teams below them are likely to be competing for European qualification, higher league positions or survival.

Of the 27 La Liga titles awarded in the 21st century, only four have gone to clubs other than Real Madrid CF or FC Barcelona, with none of those upsets coming since 2021. The two Spanish giants have shared the other 23 championships, and their two meetings this season are again expected to command attention in Spain and around the world.

Barcelona start as favourites

Two-time defending champions FC Barcelona enjoyed a standout campaign last season, finishing first with 94 points eight more than their closest challengers and scoring 95 goals. Their task now is to maintain that level or improve on it.

There is, however, room for progress. Barcelona lost six matches last season and conceded almost one goal per game on average, meaning their defence was not as dominant as their overall points tally suggested.

The Blaugrana have begun reshaping their squad after losing several important players from last season. Robert Lewandowski, Ronald Araujo, Marcus Rashford and Ferran Torres have departed, while Joao Cancelo returned to Al-Hilal when his loan expired.

Anthony Gordon, Karim Adeyemi and Belgian prospect Jesse Bisiwu have arrived in Catalonia, with a major move for Rodri also considered likely in the coming days. Hansi Flick therefore has a promising squad, even before the final moves of the last two weeks of the transfer window.

Barcelona can also call on seven Spanish world champions: Lamine Yamal, Dani Olmo, Pau Cubarsi, Pedri, Gavi, Eric Garcia and Joan Garcia. That combination is considered strong enough to make the club legitimate contenders to win the title again.

Mourinho returns to Real Madrid

Real Madrid begin a new project after two seasons regarded as below the standards expected at the club. Jose Mourinho has returned to the dugout, tasked with reviving the Merengue side, and has been followed to Madrid by a group of high-profile international players.

Those arrivals include recent world champion Marc Cucurella, experienced Portugal midfielder Bernardo Silva, France defender Ibrahima Konate, versatile Netherlands international Denzel Dumfries and Ivory Coast prospect Yan Diomande.

President Florentino Perez has invested heavily in an attempt to strengthen an attack that already contains some of the best players in the world in their positions, including Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Junior and Jude Bellingham.

Mourinho’s main challenge will be turning a collection of outstanding individuals into a cohesive and successful team. Real Madrid’s pre-season record of three wins, one draw and no defeats suggests that progress may already be under way, although history including at Real Madrid has occasionally shown that too much quality can create its own problems.

On individual ability, Real Madrid are considered stronger overall than Barcelona. The Catalan side, however, have the more established collective and have added experienced players in targeted positions. Barcelona are therefore judged better equipped to retain the championship, with odds of 1.76.

Atletico lead the chasing pack

La Liga can be split into three broad groups: the two title favourites, the 17 other clubs and Atletico de Madrid, who occupy a position between the leading pair and the rest.

The Colchoneros are generally not strong enough to challenge Real Madrid CF and FC Barcelona consistently, although they have broken through to win the title in 2014 and 2021. They remain a level above most of the division and are again expected to be favourites for third place, one of the three positions that qualify for the Champions League. Atletico finished fourth last season.

Diego Simeone’s side have strengthened significantly. Alongside the ongoing Julian Alvarez situation with Atletico now well placed to keep him the club have accelerated their transfer business by signing Christian Romero, Morten Hjulmand, Kang-in Lee and Alejandro Grimaldo.

They will join a squad containing Jan Oblak, Robin Le Normand, Ademola Lookman and Alexander Sørloth. Atletico’s departures have so far been limited. Aside from Antoine Griezmann leaving as a free agent, the main losses have been Thiago Almada, Clement Lenglet and Nahuel Molina.

Atletico are backed to finish third, with odds of 1.22.

Villarreal, who finished an impressive third last season, are expected to remain among the leading challengers despite their disappointing opening draw at Racing Santander. The side featuring Ivory Coast forward Nicolas Pepe are priced at 4.00 to secure a Champions League place.

Athletic Bilbao, led in part by the Williams brothers, are expected to recover from an underwhelming campaign and return to the standards they showed in 2024-25. Real Betis, who have improved over the past two years, and Real Sociedad, whose attack includes Spain striker Mikel Oyarzabal, are also expected to challenge for European places.

Athletic Bilbao and Real Betis are each priced at 3.75 to qualify for Europe, while Real Sociedad have odds of 7.00.

Relegation battle expected to be open

The fight to avoid relegation is expected to involve the newly promoted clubs, whose immediate priority is survival, as well as teams with more limited financial resources.

Racing Santander have begun with an encouraging draw against Villarreal, but are still regarded as candidates for relegation. Malaga are another concern after winning only one of their five pre-season matches, while historic club Deportivo La Coruna have returned to the top flight and face a difficult campaign.

Levante made a poor start by losing 3-0 on Sunday evening. Osasuna have also been highlighted after failing to win any of their last three pre-season matches. Both clubs survived at the end of last season only because of a favourable goal difference.

Elche and Deportivo Alaves are also expected to be involved. Rayo Vallecano may struggle to repeat last season’s achievement after operating above expectations, with their squad potentially lacking the strength to sustain that level.

Elche, who were close to relegation last season and have started this campaign badly, are tipped to go down, with relegation odds of 3.00. Osasuna are priced at 6.5, while one of the three promoted clubs, Malaga, are given odds of 2.1.

Mbappe the leading scoring candidate

The departures of Robert Lewandowski and, to a lesser extent, Antoine Griezmann and Ferran Torres have further reduced the number of elite, natural goalscorers in La Liga. Kylian Mbappe, last season’s leading scorer, is therefore the overwhelming favourite to finish top of the scoring charts again.

Julian Alvarez could provide a stronger challenge if he avoids injury and finds greater consistency. Mikel Oyarzabal scored 15 goals in 2025-26, while George Mikautadze scored 13 and Borja Iglesias 14.

The main threat to the established strikers may come from wide players. Lamine Yamal and Vinicius Junior are both capable of disrupting the expected order through their pace, direct running and ability to cut inside.

Mbappe is priced at 1.57 to retain the Golden Boot. Alvarez is available at 21 and Oyarzabal at 13, while Yamal and Vinicius Junior are priced at 10 and 17 respectively.

Odds may change.