Spain’s World Cup triumph throws Ballon d’Or race wide open

Spain’s victory at the 2026 World Cup in North America has dramatically reshaped the race for the Ballon d’Or, with teenage sensation Lamine Yamal and England captain Harry Kane now installed as joint favourites ahead of Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe.

Bookmakers’ odds shifted sharply in the aftermath of the final, as the world’s most prestigious football tournament once again looks set to play a decisive role in determining the winner of the game’s top individual prize.

According to leading bookmaker 1xBet, Yamal – a newly crowned world champion with Spain – and Kane are now level at odds of 3.00 to lift the Ballon d’Or later this year.

Messi overtaken after World Cup – but still in contention

Before the World Cup final, eight-time Ballon d’Or winner Lionel Messi had been the clear frontrunner for another crown, with 1xBet rating his chances at 2.50.

Following the conclusion of the tournament, however, the Argentina star has slipped down the rankings and now sits in joint third place.

Messi shares those odds with Spain midfielder Rodri, who was named the best player of the 2026 World Cup. Both are now priced at 4.50, behind Yamal and Kane.

France forward Kylian Mbappe, who finished the tournament as its leading scorer, remains firmly in the conversation but slightly further back. His chances are now rated at 5.00.

Defending Ballon d’Or winner facing long odds

Ousmane Dembele, the current holder of the Ballon d’Or, is rated as an outsider to retain his title.

The French winger’s odds stand at 25.00, suggesting that bookmakers see only a slim chance of him repeating last year’s success.

Two of his team-mates are considered even longer shots. Portuguese midfielder Vitinha is priced at 29.00, while Spain international Fabian Ruiz is out at 35.00.

The market reflects a broader pattern seen in previous years, with World Cup performance and influence on the biggest stage carrying significant weight in voters’ minds.

Historic Ballon d’Or ceremony heads to London

This year’s Ballon d’Or ceremony will be held on 26 October 2026 – and, for the first time in 70 years, it will not take place in Paris.

Instead, London will host the prestigious event, marking a historic break with tradition for the award, which is organised by France Football.

The choice of the English capital is symbolic: it honours the very first winner of the Ballon d’Or, England’s Stanley Matthews, who received the trophy exactly 70 years ago.

The move to London is seen as a tribute both to Matthews’ legacy and to the wider impact of English football on the global game.

Race set to tighten as form and perception shift

With Spain’s world title, Yamal’s emergence on the biggest stage and Kane’s leadership for England all heavily influencing current sentiment, the Ballon d’Or race appears finely balanced.

Messi’s status as an eight-time winner and Rodri’s award as best player at the World Cup keep them firmly in the hunt, while Mbappe’s goal-scoring exploits ensure he cannot be discounted.

Bookmakers caution that the situation remains fluid as the club season progresses and voters weigh World Cup performances against achievements at domestic and European level.

Odds are subject to change.