AFCON 2025: Morocco lead with 19% chance to win tournament with Egypt, Senegal and Ivory Coast among contenders

The 2025 Africa Cup of Nations will officially get underway in Morocco on Sunday, December 21, with anticipation building ahead of the opening fixture of the continent’s flagship football competition.

Ahead of the tournament, Opta has tipped host nation Morocco as the leading favourites to lift the trophy, giving the Atlas Lions a 19 per cent chance of winning the competition. Morocco’s rise on the international stage has been impressive in recent years, highlighted by their historic run to the semi-finals of the 2022 FIFA World Cup.

Since then, expectations around the North African giants have continued to grow, with Opta and artificial intelligence models both identifying them as the team to beat in Morocco.

Despite being the reigning African champions, Côte d’Ivoire are not highly placed among the leading contenders. Teams such as Senegal, Egypt, Algeria, Nigeria and Tunisia are all ranked ahead of the Elephants in Opta’s projections, underlining the competitive nature of the upcoming tournament.

Cameroon, five-time winners of the Africa Cup of Nations, are also not considered outright favourites. The Indomitable Lions are instead listed among potential surprise packages. Opta ranks the Cameroonian side ninth among possible winners of the 2025 edition, assigning them a 4.1% chance of claiming the title.

Opta’s projections place Morocco at the top with a 19.1% chance of winning the tournament, followed by Egypt at 12.4% and Senegal at 12.3%. Algeria are close behind with 12%, while Nigeria are given a 7.3% chance. Tunisia, Côte d’Ivoire and Mali are also in contention, each hovering around the 6% mark, with Cameroon and South Africa completing the top ten.

Despite recording positive results since the last AFCON and securing qualification for the FIFA World Cup 2026 intercontinental play-off, the Democratic Republic of Congo are ranked 11th by Opta. The Leopards are given just a 2% chance of winning the tournament in Morocco. Gabon are rated at 1%, while Benin are assigned a 0.5% probability.