Sheger Ketema v Negelle Arsi: Form, fine margins and league stakes in April showdown

Nuhu Adams April 11, 2026

Sheger Ketema host Negelle Arsi on 13 April at 10:00 (GMT) in a league fixture shaped by contrasting away and home records, recent form runs and narrow winning and losing margins across the season.

The match is set against a league campaign in which Sheger Ketema have turned their ground into a place of stubborn resistance rather than outright dominance. They have recorded 6 home wins, 13 draws and 7 defeats, pointing to a side that is hard to beat but often unable to kill games. Negelle Arsi arrive with a significantly stronger away profile, having collected 11 wins, 9 draws and 6 losses on the road, suggesting confidence and organisation when travelling.

The key statistics of the players of both teams this season:

Assists: (Sheger Ketema) — 0 assists, (Negelle Arsi) — 0 assists.
Goalkeepers saves: (Sheger Ketema) — 0, (Negelle Arsi) — 0
Tackles: None (Sheger Ketema) — None, None (Negelle Arsi) — None.
Most encounters won: (Sheger Ketema) — 0, (Negelle Arsi) — 0.
Yellow cards: None (Sheger Ketema) — None, None (Negelle Arsi) — None.
Red cards: None (Sheger Ketema) — None, None (Negelle Arsi) — None.

Top 5 scorers this season:

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Team statistics:

Sheger Ketema’s recent results underline that pattern. Their last five games read LDWDW, a sequence that mixes resilience with inconsistency but still hints at an upward trend. The two wins in that run, alongside a draw, show a team capable of reacting well after setbacks and edging tight contests. The presence of a defeat and another draw, however, highlights an ongoing struggle to maintain momentum across consecutive fixtures.

The five previous matches played by the teams:

Sheger Ketema — LDWDW
Negelle Arsi — DLLDD

Negelle Arsi’s last five outings tell a different story. A DLLDD form line points to a side stuck in a run where victories have dried up. Two defeats followed by three draws reflect a team that has stabilised defensively after a poor spell but is not turning control into wins. That lack of cutting edge has left them reliant on discipline and structure rather than explosive attacking displays.

According to home statistics this season, Sheger Ketema scores more goals and concedes more in the following intervals:

Intervals	Goal Scored, %	Goals conceded, %
0-15	8.33%	4.55%
16-30	12.50%	4.55%
31-45	16.67%	22.73%
46-60	29.17%	13.64%
61-75	16.67%	27.27%
76-90	16.67%	27.27%
91-105

Negelle Arsi has the following time frames of scoring and conceding goals:

Intervals	Goal Scored, %	Goals conceded, %
0-15	24.00%	11.11%
16-30	12.00%	11.11%
31-45	12.00%	11.11%
46-60	8.00%	16.67%
61-75	12.00%	11.11%
76-90	28.00%	38.89%
91-105	4.00%

Head-to-head stats:

Teams	Games	Win		Draws		Losses
Teams	Games	H	A	H	A	H	A
Sheger Ketema	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Negelle Arsi	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Probabilities before the match:

Sheger Ketema		Negelle Arsi
52.0%	Winning the game	52.0%
67%	Attack potential	67%
50%	Potential in defense	50%
50%	Strength against each other	50%
50%	Goal Potential	50%

Summary: the probability of Negelle Arsi winning – 30%, draw – 35%, loss – 35%. Thus Sheger Ketema, most likely, win (win or draw)

Goal Forecast:Sheger Ketema, is likely to score -1.5 goals, Negelle Arsi is likely to score no more than -1.5.

The bookmaker odds for this match:

Home win	Draw	Away win
0	0	0

Save the date

The match between the teams Sheger Ketema and Negelle Arsi will take place on April 13 at 10:00 (GMT) at the stadium .