Turkey v Belgium: Arda Guler form a key factor in Nations League clash

Belgium travel to Izmir on Thursday knowing victory over Turkey would keep their hopes of reaching the UEFA Nations League quarter-finals alive.

The Group 1, League A fixture at Gursel Aksel Stadium is Belgium’s penultimate match, with the visitors third behind France and Italy. Turkey’s prospects of progressing are virtually over.

Belgium also finished third behind France and Italy in the 2024-25 Nations League and face the possibility of repeating that outcome after taking six points from their opening four matches, with two wins and two defeats.

The match predictions are for both teams to score and more than 2.5 goals at 1.59, Arda Guler to score or provide an assist at 2.30, and Jeremy Doku to contribute a goal or assist at 2.40.

Thursday’s game is only the second international window since Mark van Bommel became Belgium manager. He said he had seen “beautiful things” from his players despite their 4-1 defeat by France in the fourth round of fixtures.

Belgium are one point behind Italy and four behind leaders France. A defeat in Turkey, combined with an Italy win over France, would end their chances of finishing in the top two. Three points in Izmir would ensure the group remains undecided until the final matchday.

Ranked eighth in the world by FIFA, Belgium can draw confidence from previous Nations League wins over both of their rivals. They beat Italy 2-0 away and Turkey 3-0 at home, with Kevin De Bruyne scoring twice and all-time leading scorer Romelu Lukaku adding the other goal.

The Red Devils have lost only one of their past six meetings with Turkey in all competitions and are seeking to avoid consecutive international defeats for the first time since March 2025.

Turkey begin a new era under former international midfielder Sergen Yalcın, who was appointed last month after Vincenzo Montella’s three-year spell ended.

Montella left after Turkey lost all four opening Nations League matches, conceding 11 goals and scoring twice. That run followed their group-stage exit from the 2026 World Cup in the summer.

Yalcın, 54, returned to management six months after leaving Besiktas, who finished fourth in the Turkish Super Lig last season. He has called for “unity and togetherness” so the national team can “live through very beautiful days from now on”.

Turkey, ranked 31st by FIFA, cannot reach the quarter-finals but could still avoid automatic relegation. They need points from their final two matches to finish ahead of Serbia and Czech Republic and rank among the two best fourth-placed teams across League A.

To avoid ending bottom of the group, Turkey must beat Belgium by at least four goals, defeat France again in the sixth round and hope Belgium drop points against Italy.

Turkey are without Kenan Yıldız, who requires further treatment for a metatarsal fracture with Juventus. Abdulkerim Bardakcı is suspended, while Zeki Celik, Merih Demiral, Ozan Kabak, Salih Ozcan and Can Yılmaz Uzun are one booking away from suspension.

Guler, who scored and assisted in Real Madrid’s La Liga win over Valencia last weekend, is expected to play in an advanced central role. Hakan Calhanoglu, on 108 caps, will move above Tuncay’s 22 goals to become Turkey’s third-highest scorer if he finds the net.

Belgium remain without goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois, while AC Milan defender Koni De Winter declined selection after becoming unhappy with his lack of playing time last month. Genk’s 20-year-old Josue Kongolo has received his first senior call-up.

Romeo Lavia is suspended, while Lukaku, Nathan Ngoy, Joaquin Seys, Nicolas Raskin and Dodi Lukebakio are one yellow card from a ban. De Bruyne and Youri Tielemans return from suspension, and Doku is expected to start after recovering from injury.

Belgium’s greater attacking strength and their 3-0 victory last month make them favourites, although Turkey will hope for an immediate “new manager effect” under Yalcın.