Real Madrid face Sevilla as Mbappe-backed home win tipped in Liga clash

Real Madrid CF host FC Seville at the Santiago Bernabeu on Sunday, 18 October 2026, with a home victory priced at 1.28. The match, part of the ninth jornada of Liga, begins at 19:00 GMT. Nasser Eddy, consultant for NCI Sport and presenter of the European Champions League on radio Nostalgie, has shared his assessment and predictions.

Real Madrid go into the game after a remarkable recovery against AS Roma in the second matchday of the league phase of the Champions League. Trailing 3-1 with 10 minutes remaining, Jose Mourinho’s side scored three times to win 4-3.

That comeback reflected a recent pattern for the Merengue, who have looked vulnerable but have repeatedly been rescued by individual quality. Yan Diomande provided an assist in Rome, while Kylian Mbappe scored. Real Madrid are attempting to close a six-point gap to FC Barcelona, making a home win particularly important.

The Spanish side have won more corners than their opponents in their past two matches. They have also opened the scoring in six of the seven Liga games in which they have found the net this season.

FC Seville arrive in the capital with a 50% win rate but have shown contrasting performances. The Rojiblancos have competed well against teams of a similar level, while struggling against the division’s strongest sides. They lost 3-1 to both Atletico de Madrid and FC Barcelona.

Their 3-3 draw at Levante on Monday highlighted both aspects of their game, with a goal for each team in added time. Luis Garcia’s side remain dangerous in attack but have the second-worst defence among the top 10 teams in this Liga. They have also failed to win the corner count in each of their past three league matches.

The recent head-to-head record strongly favours Real Madrid. FC Seville have won none of the past 15 meetings, drawing only twice, while the Merengue have taken victory in the last five. Since 2008, Real Madrid have recorded 30 wins to FC Seville’s seven, with three draws in 40 matches.

Carlos Espi is the player highlighted ahead of the game. Signed from Levante several weeks ago, he has quickly become an effective substitute. In Rome, he came off the bench to score the first of Real Madrid’s three late goals and helped inspire the turnaround from 1-3 down.

The recommended exact score is a 3-1 Real Madrid win at 9.5. The analysis also suggests combining a home victory with both teams to score, priced at 2.5. Real Madrid are tipped to win the corner market at 1.12, while Kylian Mbappe is priced at 1.33 to score at any time.

Mbappe has scored seven goals in eight Liga matches and twice in two Champions League games, including in Rome. Real Madrid are also priced at 1.26 to score first. The odds may change.