Mbappe leads unpredictable Ballon d’Or race despite winning no team trophies

Kylian Mbappe is the leading candidate for the Ballon d’Or, despite becoming the only major contender to enter the race without a collective trophy.

The award will be presented in London on 26 October, with at least seven players having a realistic chance of winning it. However, the Ballon d’Or criteria place individual performance and influence on the pitch ahead of team honours, followed by conduct and fair play.

Mbappe’s season with Real Madrid and France was outstanding on an individual level, even though neither side enjoyed collective success. He finished as La Liga’s leading scorer with 25 goals as Real Madrid came second behind Barcelona, and topped the Champions League scoring charts with 15 goals despite the club failing to reach the semi-finals.

He also scored 10 goals at the 2026 World Cup, making him the tournament’s leading scorer and its all-time leading scorer with 22 goals. France won no medal, but Mbappe dominated the major individual awards across the season.

That record means he can still claim the prize in the same way as his idol Cristiano Ronaldo did in 2013. Ronaldo won no major trophy with Real Madrid or Portugal that year, but scored 69 goals, helped Portugal qualify for the 2014 World Cup with four goals in two play-off matches against Sweden and finished ahead of Lionel Messi and Franck Ribery, whose influence was considered limited despite Bayern Munich’s historic five-trophy season.

Mbappe has also benefited from the fact that the winners of the Champions League and World Cup have been built around collective strength rather than an individual star. Luis Enrique’s Paris Saint-Germain moved away from a squad centred on Mbappe, Lionel Messi, Neymar and Sergio Ramos and won four successive European trophies, including two Champions League titles and two UEFA Super Cups.

Luis de la Fuente’s Spain adopted a similar approach, winning UEFA Euro 2024 and the World Cup. Lamine Yamal was not the clear face of that success, scoring once and providing one assist at the tournament.

Harry Kane is the other leading contender and, in this assessment, should finish second. The Bayern Munich and England striker won the European Golden Shoe with 36 league goals and scored 72 times for club and country. He also helped Bayern win the league, cup and Super Cup, while England claimed World Cup bronze.

Kane’s scoring record is exceptional, although many of his goals came against German teams viewed as weaker than their English or Spanish counterparts. He also failed to surpass Mbappe individually in the Champions League or World Cup.

Yamal, who won La Liga, the Spanish Super Cup and the World Cup, is rated third. His 16 league goals matched Ferran Torres and left both nine behind Mbappe. At the World Cup, he scored once, against Saudi Arabia, and created one goal. His ability and entertainment value are not in doubt, but those qualities alone do not satisfy the award’s criteria.

Rodri, the previous holder, remains a strong candidate despite an injury-hit start at Manchester City. He was named the World Cup’s best player and influenced Spain through his work linking the team’s lines and his leadership on and off the pitch.

Paris Saint-Germain’s Champions League-winning squad also includes Ousmane Dembele, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Fabian Ruiz, who won both the Champions League and World Cup. Nasser Al-Khelaifi backed Dembele, Kvaratskhelia and Ruiz among the club’s nominees, alongside Ferran Torres.

Lionel Messi’s history should not decide the award. Beyond his World Cup performances, he achieved little in a weak MLS campaign, did not win the tournament, its Golden Boot or best-player award, and failed to score against Switzerland, England or Spain. Arguments for a ninth Ballon d’Or are therefore emotional, while Cristiano Ronaldo’s Saudi league title alone is not enough to secure a top-five or top-10 place.