Manchester United favourites to beat Sabah on Champions League return

Manchester United begin their Champions League campaign against Sabah Baku at Old Trafford on Thursday, 10 September, with the hosts priced at 1.40 to score more than 2.5 goals in the match.

The fixture marks United’s return to Europe’s premier club competition after missing out since 2023. The Red Devils finished third in the Premier League last season to secure qualification, with Michael Carrick now in charge.

However, United’s immediate form has been uneven. They drew 2-2 with Everton last weekend after taking the lead twice, conceding an equaliser from Maitland-Niles in the 96th minute. Marcus Rashford impressed in that match but was substituted after feeling discomfort.

Sabah Baku, founded in 2017, are appearing at this level for the first time. The Azerbaijani club had to negotiate four qualifying rounds to reach the league phase, overcoming opponents from Wales, Finland, Denmark and Israel.

Their progress has been overseen by Lithuanian manager Valdas Dambrauskas, who has guided the young club to the top of Azerbaijani football and into the Champions League.

Contrasting routes to the league phase

Two years ago, Manchester United missed the chance to qualify after losing the Europa League final to Tottenham. Last season’s third-place Premier League finish, under Carrick, finally secured their return to the Champions League.

Their league campaign began with a defeat at Hull City, but they responded by beating Ipswich 5-2 at home before drawing with Everton. United have conceded six goals in three Premier League matches, although their only home game so far ended in a convincing victory.

Sabah won the Azerbaijani championship last season, finishing ahead of Qarabag, who reached the last 16 of the Champions League last term.

The champions had to complete the entire qualifying route this year. They beat The New Saints 4-1 on aggregate, overcame KuPS 3-0 overall and recovered from a 2-1 first-leg defeat by Aarhus to win the return match 4-0.

In the play-off round, Sabah lost 2-1 away to Hapoel Beer Sheva but won the second leg 5-2 after extra time. They will now aim to match Qarabag’s achievement of progressing from the league phase last season.

Sabah have also made a strong start domestically. They beat Araz 1-0 before thrashing Zira 5-0 in their most recent match. Those results have put them top of the table after three games, despite having played one match fewer.

Team news and key players

Manchester United are expected to be without Baleba, who has an ankle problem after joining from Brighton for a substantial fee. Matthijs de Ligt remains a long-term absentee, while Amad Diallo, Heaton and former Paris Saint-Germain midfielder Manuel Ugarte are also unavailable. Diallo picked up his injury during pre-season.

Kobbie Mainoo, who has one Premier League assist this season, and Bruno Fernandes, with three goals and one assist, are available. United’s attacking options include Bryan Mbeumo, who has scored twice, Benjamin Sesko, who has one goal, and Brazil international Matheus Cunha, who has provided one assist.

Rashford appears to have Carrick’s confidence after returning from a successful loan spell at Barcelona. New arrivals Youri Tielemans, from Aston Villa, and Audrey Santos, from Chelsea, are also fit.

United have seen several notable departures during the summer. Brazil midfielder Casemiro moved permanently to Inter Miami, Sancho left as a free agent and Højlund joined Napoli. Goalkeeper Altay Bayındır has gone on loan to Celta de Vigo.

Sabah are likely to be without Aliyev, who has been sidelined since June and scored six league goals last season. Simic has been one of the outstanding players during qualifying, scoring six times, and he added another goal against Zira in the league.

Joy-Lance Mickels has contributed four goals and one assist and recently scored a hat-trick in the domestic competition, taking his total to four goals there.

During the close season, France youth international Aaron Malouda joined Basel. Younes Lachaa, from Lille, Nigerian forward Nwachukwu, from Sheffield United, and Brazilian Queiroz, from Zenit, also arrived at Sabah.

Predictions and betting angles

Thursday’s match will be the first meeting between Manchester United and Sabah FK.

United have won the Champions League three times, while Sabah are making their debut in the competition. Mickels and Simic were Sabah’s most influential players in the preliminary rounds, with four and six goals respectively.

The prediction is that United’s superior squad should prove too strong for the Azerbaijani side at Old Trafford. The recommended selections are a Manchester United win at odds of 1.145, more than 0.5 United goals in the first half at 1.23, and more than 2.5 goals in the match at 1.40.

Other statistical options include both teams not to score at 1.82 and Manchester United to win the first half at 1.44.

United are expected to attack early, particularly given the quality of their new signings, while the open nature of the contest could produce at least three goals. The odds may change.