Guler or Diomande? Mourinho faces Real Madrid selection dilemma for Madrid derby

Jose Mourinho must decide whether Arda Guler or Yan Diomande should occupy the final place in his Real Madrid line-up for the Madrid derby against Atletico de Madrid at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano.

According to Spanish newspaper AS, the choice is comparable to deciding between a Stradivarius violin and a Gibson Flying V guitar. In theory, Mourinho’s starting XI has room for only one of them, with the two players offering markedly different qualities.

Guler provides the final pass and has developed a distinctive understanding with Kylian Mbappe. Diomande, meanwhile, offers a dribbling threat that has become increasingly rare and is a significant weapon in its own right.

The Ivorian’s ability to take on defenders can unsettle the opposition by stretching the full-back and forcing a second defender to cover. That is an element Vinicius Junior has not consistently supplied from the left flank.

Diomande was considerably more effective than the number seven in this area during the 3-2 win over Elche. He completed seven of his nine dribble attempts, accounting for 50% of the team’s successful dribbles. A similar dynamic was evident against Rayo Vallecano and in earlier matches.

His dribbling success rate stands at 88%, compared with 52% for Vinicius Junior. Diomande also averages 5.2 successful dribbles per 90 minutes, while the Brazilian records 3.1. Those figures strengthen the case for his inclusion from the start.

Mourinho has repeatedly insisted that the €125m Real Madrid paid to sign Diomande does not guarantee him a place in the starting XI. At one news conference, he jokingly asked the club’s media officer, who was sitting beside him: “How much did he cost us?”

Even so, large transfer fees are generally paid to be used in major matches such as this one. Mourinho has kept his plans hidden, with the derby resembling a game of Risk. He offered no clues during the Elche match, despite selecting Guler and Diomande together.

Guler’s set-piece influence

After the hard-fought victory over Elche, Mourinho was asked whether Guler had become indispensable to the current Real Madrid side. His response was unequivocal: “No, nobody is.”

Guler’s current importance is clear without making him untouchable. He has started four of the club’s six league matches, but was either the first substitute or among the first group of replacements in three of them.

One decisive factor could be his left-footed delivery from set pieces. Guler has supplied assists, including the ball for Jude Bellingham at Cornella, and scored directly from a free-kick to open the scoring at the Martinez Valero.

When Guler is absent, Trent Alexander-Arnold takes responsibility for those situations, although Denzel Dumfries appears the more likely starter.

Bellingham return adds pressure

The final decision rests with Mourinho. Although the Portuguese manager has a history of unexpected tactical solutions in major matches, his options appear restricted by Aurelien Tchouameni’s status as a key player and Federico Valverde’s secure position.

In practical terms, he must choose between adding another midfielder or introducing a new attacking threat in the form of Guler or Diomande. Bellingham’s return for the derby makes that decision even more significant.