Germany must beat Netherlands to reach Nations League quarter-finals

Germany host group A2 leaders Netherlands at Berlin’s Olympiastadion on Monday, 16 November, with kick-off at 20:45, knowing that victory is almost essential to secure a place in the UEFA Nations League quarter-finals.

Jurgen Klopp’s side are third in League A2 on eight points, level with Greece and three points behind the Netherlands. UEFA’s head-to-head regulations could prove decisive if teams finish level.

Germany are seeking only the second quarter-final appearance in their Nations League history. They were beaten 1-0 by Greece on 27 September and drew 0-0 in the fourth round, but Greece’s 7-0 defeat by the Netherlands on Friday has opened the door for the hosts.

A win over the Netherlands would guarantee Germany finish above Greece, regardless of the result between Greece and Serbia. Germany drew 1-1 with the Netherlands in the reverse fixture after Cody Gakpo equalised in added time, but have remained unbeaten in the group since losing to Greece.

They strengthened their position with a 3-1 victory in Serbia on Friday. Germany were already 2-0 ahead after 14 minutes, following an own goal by Srđan Babic and a strike from Florian Wirtz.

Netherlands in control

Xavi’s Netherlands remain unbeaten in this Nations League campaign and sit top of the group with 11 points. After a 2-2 draw in early October, they produced a dominant 7-0 win against Greece, meaning they would only drop out of the top two if Greece overturned a 14-goal difference deficit.

The Netherlands were without defensive leader Virgil van Dijk during this international window, but recorded their first clean sheet of the campaign against Greece. Tijjani Reijnders was the major attacking influence, scoring a first-half hat-trick.

The visitors have won only one of their past six away matches against Germany, although they are unbeaten in their last seven away games. Their most recent defeat away from home came on penalties in Spain in the Nations League quarter-finals in March 2025, after the two legs finished 5-5 on aggregate.

Germany’s recent form in the Nations League is D-W-N-W, while their form in all competitions is also D-W-N-W. The Netherlands’ sequence is W-N-W-W in both the Nations League and all competitions.

Germany have no new injury concerns, but Bayern Munich pair Jamal Musiala and Serge Gnabry remain unavailable with muscle problems. Brajan Gruda, Florian Wirtz and Derry Scherhant are expected to support Arsenal forward Kai Havertz.

Frenkie de Jong left the Netherlands camp after suffering back pain during the match against Greece. Teun Koopmeiners is expected to partner Joey Veerman in front of the defence, with Reijnders operating as the number 10.

Donyell Malen, who has scored 12 goals in all competitions for AS Roma this season and also netted on Friday, is expected to lead the attack, supported by Cody Gakpo and Crysencio Summerville. In Van Dijk’s absence, Micky van de Ven and Jan Paul van Hecke should form the central defensive partnership.

Germany are backed to win 2-1. The listed match selections are Germany to win at 1.75, both teams to score at 1.35, and Malen or Havertz to score at 1.45. The exact-score prediction of 2-1 is priced at 7.75 with Betclic.