Ethiopian Medhin host Fasil Ketema on 5 February at 10:00 (GMT) in a league clash shaped by contrasting recent form and sharply different home-and-away records.
Fasil Ketema arrive with strong momentum after a DWWWD sequence in their last five matches, while Ethiopian Medhin’s DWDLW run underlines an inconsistent campaign. The visitors have built their season on resilience away from home, recording 8 wins, 8 draws and only 1 defeat on their travels. Ethiopian Medhin, by contrast, have struggled to turn their own ground into a fortress, with 4 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses at home.
The league table context increases the stakes. Fasil Ketema’s away record and defensive solidity, including 12 clean sheets this season, point towards a side competing at the top end, pushing for the title or continental qualification. Ethiopian Medhin’s mixed home returns and tendency to drop points suggest a mid-table or lower-mid-table campaign, where every point remains crucial to avoid being dragged into a relegation battle.
Ethiopian Medhin have shown both resilience and fragility this season. They have failed to score in 6 league matches, underlining an attacking unit that can go missing against organised defences. Their biggest home win stands at 1–0, with a tight margin that mirrors their difficulty in putting games to bed. Their biggest home defeat, 0–1, reflects narrow scorelines but also the fine margins that have repeatedly gone against them.
On the road, Ethiopian Medhin have experienced sharper swings. Their largest away win, 2–3, highlights the capacity to score goals in open contests, but their heaviest away loss, 2–1, again shows how often games turn on a single goal. This pattern underlines a team often competitive but lacking the decisive edge at key moments, especially against well-drilled opponents.
Fasil Ketema present a contrasting profile. Their biggest home win this season is 1–0, suggesting a pragmatic, control-based approach rather than free-scoring dominance. Away from home, their widest winning margin is 0–2, a sign of a side built on structure, clean sheets and efficiency rather than high-scoring thrillers. Their biggest home defeat, 0–2, is rare in a season defined more by their ability to avoid conceding than by heavy losses. Their away record, marked by just one defeat, underlines them as one of the most reliable travelling teams in the league.
The recent form lines reinforce this picture. Ethiopian Medhin’s last five games, DWDLW, include points taken from difficult fixtures but also dropped from winnable ones. The sequence shows a team capable of responding after setbacks but unable to string together a sustained run. Fasil Ketema’s DWWWD run, by contrast, points to a side that rarely loses and converts draws into wins with growing regularity.
At home this season, Ethiopian Medhin have struggled to impose themselves. Four wins from 18 home matches, alongside seven draws and seven defeats, indicate a ground where visiting teams are not intimidated. Those numbers highlight a lack of cutting edge in attack and vulnerability to late concessions, particularly in tight, low-scoring encounters. Their limited winning margins and frequent goalless outings reflect these issues.
Fasil Ketema’s away form is one of the defining statistical stories of the campaign. Eight wins, eight draws and only one defeat away underline the balance in their approach: disciplined off the ball, patient in possession and clinical when chances appear. The 0–2 away win as their biggest margin illustrates a strategy based on building a lead and then protecting it rather than chasing big scores.
Clean-sheet data further clarifies the tactical matchup. Fasil Ketema have not conceded in 12 matches this season, a figure that supports their reputation as one of the division’s best defensive units. They are comfortable defending deep, breaking up play and turning games into physical and tactical battles. For Ethiopian Medhin, who have drawn blanks in 6 matches, breaking down such a defence becomes the central tactical question.
Headline scorelines this campaign demonstrate the tight margins for both sides. Ethiopian Medhin’s biggest home win, 1–0, and biggest home loss, 0–1, show a side often involved in one-goal games. Their highest-scoring away victory, 2–3, hints at vulnerability in defence even in matches they win. Fasil Ketema’s 1–0 home wins and 0–2 away wins show a controlled, low-risk profile, often winning by keeping things compact rather than chasing a third or fourth goal.
From a strategic perspective, Ethiopian Medhin are likely to prioritise compactness, given Fasil Ketema’s capacity to manage games away from home. With a modest scoring record and multiple goalless performances, the hosts may look to avoid an open contest, instead targeting set-pieces and transitional moments. Their recent form suggests they can be hard to beat when organised, but they must be more ruthless in front of goal to trouble one of the league’s most consistent travellers.
Fasil Ketema, meanwhile, have every incentive to approach this as an opportunity to consolidate or improve their league position. Their strong away record reduces the need for early risk. A patient plan built on ball retention, positional discipline and selective pressing suits a team that thrives in close matches and has repeatedly turned narrow scorelines in their favour.
Psychologically, the gap in away and home performance may shape both teams’ mindsets. Ethiopian Medhin know they have not maximised their home advantage this season, and the knowledge of Fasil Ketema’s outstanding away run can either sharpen their focus or increase pressure. Fasil Ketema, having lost only once on the road, can draw confidence from a track record that suggests they are difficult to dislodge even when not at their best.
In the context of the league, Fasil Ketema’s ability to avoid defeat away from home is critical in title challenges or battles for continental spots. Turning draws into wins, as their recent form suggests they are doing, can be decisive in a tight table. For Ethiopian Medhin, every home fixture remains a chance to build breathing space from the lower reaches and to stabilise a season defined by inconsistency.
The match also brings together differing defensive patterns. Ethiopian Medhin’s narrow defeats, particularly 0–1 at home and 2–1 away, show they rarely collapse but often concede at key moments. Fasil Ketema’s 12 clean sheets and limited heavy losses suggest a unit that rarely loses concentration for long spells. In tactical terms, this may force the hosts into more risk later in the game, which could open counter-attacking opportunities for the visitors.
The sequences DWDLW for Ethiopian Medhin and DWWWD for Fasil Ketema carry implications for momentum. Ethiopian Medhin alternate between positive and negative results, struggling to build rhythm. Fasil Ketema show a clear upward trend, turning early-season solidity into a more consistent winning habit. In tight league races, that difference in trajectory often decides outcomes over the final stretch of fixtures.
The statistical backdrop to this fixture underscores the clash of styles: a home side searching for greater attacking fluency and consistency, against an away team built on defensive control, patience and near-flawless travel form. Ethiopian Medhin’s challenge lies in breaking the pattern of narrow defeats and low-scoring wins. Fasil Ketema’s task is to maintain their away resilience and convert their dominance into another result that strengthens their league campaign.
Kick-off at 10:00 (GMT) on 5 February offers Ethiopian Medhin a chance to reset their home narrative. For Fasil Ketema, it provides another opportunity to prove why their away record stands among the best in the league and to keep their ambitions at the top of the table firmly on track.
The key statistics of the players of both teams this season:
- Assists: (Ethiopian Medhin) — 0 assists, (Fasil Ketema) — 0 assists.
- Goalkeepers saves: (Ethiopian Medhin) — 0, (Fasil Ketema) — 0
- Tackles: None (Ethiopian Medhin) — None, None (Fasil Ketema) — None.
- Most encounters won: (Ethiopian Medhin) — 0, (Fasil Ketema) — 0.
- Yellow cards: None (Ethiopian Medhin) — None, None (Fasil Ketema) — None.
- Red cards: None (Ethiopian Medhin) — None, None (Fasil Ketema) — None.
Top 5 scorers this season:
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Team statistics:
The five previous matches played by the teams:
- Ethiopian Medhin — DWDLW
- Fasil Ketema — DWWWD
According to home statistics this season, Ethiopian Medhin scores more goals and concedes more in the following intervals:
| Intervals | Goal Scored, % | Goals conceded, % |
| 0-15 | 30.00% | 31.25% |
| 16-30 | 40.00% | 12.50% |
| 31-45 | 20.00% | 18.75% |
| 46-60 | 10.00% | 12.50% |
| 61-75 | 25.00% | |
| 76-90 | ||
| 91-105 |
Fasil Ketema has the following time frames of scoring and conceding goals:
| Intervals | Goal Scored, % | Goals conceded, % |
| 0-15 | 14.29% | 14.29% |
| 16-30 | 7.14% | 14.29% |
| 31-45 | 21.43% | 28.57% |
| 46-60 | 14.29% | 28.57% |
| 61-75 | 21.43% | 14.29% |
| 76-90 | 21.43% | |
| 91-105 |
Head-to-head stats:
| Teams | Games | Win | Draws | Losses | |||
| H | A | H | A | H | A | ||
| Ethiopian Medhin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fasil Ketema | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Probabilities before the match:
| Ethiopian Medhin | Fasil Ketema | |
| 40.7% | Winning the game | 40.7% |
| 33% | Attack potential | 33% |
| 67% | Potential in defense | 67% |
| 38% | Strength against each other | 38% |
| 43% | Goal Potential | 43% |
Summary: the probability of Fasil Ketema winning – 45%, draw – 45%, loss – 10%. Thus Ethiopian Medhin, most likely, loss (loss or draw)
Goal Forecast:Ethiopian Medhin, is likely to score -1.5 goals, Fasil Ketema is likely to score no more than -1.5.
The bookmaker odds for this match:
| Home win | Draw | Away win |
| 0 | 0 | 0 |
Save the date
The match between the teams Ethiopian Medhin and Fasil Ketema will take place on February 05 at 10:00 (GMT) at the stadium Addis Abeba Stadium.
