Ballon d’Or 2026: Harry Kane clear favourite as bookmakers rank top five

Harry Kane is the leading contender to succeed Ousmane Dembele as Ballon d’Or France Football winner, with the 2026 award to be presented in London on Monday, 26 October.

The England striker’s latest 1xBet price of 1.35 puts him well ahead of Lamine Yamal, who is rated at 3.3. Kylian Mbappe, Lionel Messi and Rodri complete the bookmakers’ projected top five.

Kane was already the strong favourite in September, when his odds were 1.5. His case is built around the three main criteria for the award: individual statistics, collective success and class, including fair play.

He was the Bundesliga’s leading scorer with 36 goals in 31 appearances and the second-highest scorer in the Champions League with 14 goals in 13 matches. Kane also scored seven times in eight games at the World Cup.

His contribution helped England finish third at the tournament, while Bayern Munich reached the Champions League semi-finals and won the domestic double of the Bundesliga and the German Cup. He did so without receiving a red card and while maintaining a discreet, exemplary conduct on and off the pitch.

Yamal’s claim strengthened after an outstanding start to the season

At 19, Lamine Yamal is already a world champion, a factor that carries significant weight in a World Cup year. Since the beginning of the 21st century, only Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo have won the Ballon d’Or in a World Cup year without reaching at least that tournament’s final.

Yamal also won the Spanish league title, giving him a strong collective record for the 2025-2026 season despite not winning the Champions League. His individual campaign was less consistent than expectations surrounding his talent might suggest, but he still scored 16 goals and supplied 11 assists in La Liga, as well as six goals and four assists in 10 Champions League appearances.

His odds have shortened from 5 in September to 3.3 following his impressive opening to the campaign.

Mbappe, meanwhile, produced outstanding individual numbers but won no team trophies. He was the leading scorer in La Liga, the Champions League and the World Cup, with 25, 15 and 10 goals respectively. He also moved beyond Miroslav Klose and Lionel Messi to become the World Cup’s all-time top scorer, with 22 goals in 22 matches.

However, his public image remains divisive and, for this award, he fulfils only one of the three main criteria. His odds have drifted from 6 a month and a half ago to 17.

Rodri, the 2024 winner, was central to Spain’s World Cup triumph but had a disrupted club season with Manchester City. The only trophy won was the FA Cup, while injuries limited him to 21 of 38 league matches and five Champions League games. His odds have fallen from 7.5 in September to 50.

Messi scored eight goals and provided four assists in eight World Cup appearances, taking his team to the final, and also recorded 35 goals and 24 assists in 33 Major League Soccer appearances for Inter Miami in 2025. However, no player has won the Ballon d’Or for a season played outside Europe. His odds are 20, compared with 29 in mid-September.

Odds may change.