Bafana Bafana face crucial away tests after Kenya draw

Bafana Bafana’s hopes of reaching the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations have become significantly more complicated after they were held to a draw by Kenya at home.

Pitso Mosimane’s side failed to convert a series of chances in Friday’s qualifier at Orlando Amstel Arena, allowing the Harambee Stars to take a valuable point. The result followed two victories at the start of the group campaign, but has left South Africa with little room for error in their remaining matches.

Bafana remain top of the group, although the draw has tightened the race with Guinea. South Africa face two away fixtures in their final three games, beginning with a four-hour flight to Nairobi for Tuesday’s meeting with Kenya.

They will then travel to Conakry in March to face Guinea before completing their qualifying campaign at home against Eritrea.

The next two matches are therefore expected to determine whether Bafana reach the Nations Cup finals. South Africa need to beat Benni McCarthy’s Kenya in Nairobi to prevent Guinea from moving level or ahead, with Guinea expected to claim three points against Eritrea in Cairo.

A failure to win in Kenya would place even greater pressure on the trip to Conakry. In that scenario, Bafana would need to secure victory away against Guinea before also beating Eritrea at home.

The draw has exposed the difficulty of Group D, where either South Africa or Guinea will miss out on qualification. Kenya’s position makes the situation particularly challenging because the country is already guaranteed a place at the tournament as one of the three co-hosts.

The same issue affects the other qualifying groups involving host nations. Kenya is in Group D, Uganda in Group H and Tanzania in Group L, with each of those countries assured of qualification because of their hosting roles.

For Bafana to qualify through their current route, they must win in Kenya, avoid defeat against Guinea and then record another victory over Eritrea.

Guinea, meanwhile, now know that three wins from their final three matches would secure qualification at South Africa’s expense. One of those victories would have to come against Bafana in Conakry.

South Africa’s opening two wins initially appeared to put them in a strong position, but the missed opportunities against Kenya have made the final stages of the campaign far less straightforward. The away fixtures in Nairobi and Conakry now carry the weight of determining their fate.