Artificial intelligence has weighed in on the final stretch of the Africa Cup of Nations, and the data points to Morocco and Senegal as the most likely finalists at the 2025 tournament.
With the competition in Morocco now down to the last four, projections generated by Opta’s AI-powered prediction model suggest the hosts and the reigning champions hold narrow but significant statistical advantages ahead of Wednesday’s semi-finals.
The quarter-final stage concluded on Saturday with a dramatic flourish. Egypt edged Ivory Coast 3–2 in a pulsating contest to book a semi-final meeting with Senegal, who advanced after a hard-fought 1–0 win over Mali.
Earlier, Morocco strengthened belief among home supporters with a controlled 2–0 victory over Cameroon, while Nigeria dispatched Algeria by the same scoreline to complete the semi-final line-up.
Opta’s model, which draws on performance data, historical trends and in-tournament metrics, now places Morocco and Senegal slightly ahead of their respective opponents as the tournament edges closer to its climax.
Morocco edge Nigeria in numbers-driven forecast
According to the AI projections, Morocco have a 57.15 per cent chance of overcoming Nigeria to reach the final. The hosts’ strong probability reflects their consistency throughout the tournament and the influence of key figures such as captain Achraf Hakimi, alongside the tactical stability provided by head coach Walid Regragui.
Nigeria, however, remain firmly in contention. The Super Eagles have been assigned a 42.85 per cent chance of progression, underlining how closely matched the semi-final is expected to be. Led by prolific striker Victor Osimhen, Nigeria’s attacking threat ensures the contest remains finely balanced despite Morocco’s statistical edge.
Senegal favoured to extend recent dominance over Egypt
In the second semi-final, Senegal are also marginal favourites to reach the final, with Opta assigning the Teranga Lions a 55.13 per cent probability of victory against Egypt. The Pharaohs, led by Mohamed Salah, have been given a 44.87 per cent chance of advancing.
The forecast echoes recent history between the two sides. Senegal defeated Egypt on penalties in the 2022 AFCON final and later eliminated them in World Cup qualification for Qatar 2022, again via a shootout, following split home-and-away victories.
While Opta’s projections suggest Morocco and Senegal are best placed to contest the final scheduled for January 18, the slim margins highlighted by the AI underline the unpredictability that has defined AFCON 2025.
