Belgium v Italy: Nations League quarter-final place at stake in Brussels

Belgium host Italy in Brussels on Sunday evening with a place in the UEFA Nations League quarter-finals at stake, in a decisive Group 1 encounter involving the two sides and France.

The Red Devils kept their qualification hopes alive with a 2-1 victory over Turkey in Izmir on Thursday. Arda Guler put the hosts ahead with a spectacular free-kick, but Belgium responded with two goals before half-time from Kevin De Bruyne and Charles De Ketelaere.

Goalkeeper Senne Lammens then made two important late saves to preserve the points. The result came after Belgium’s 4-1 defeat by France last month, when they conceded four times in the final quarter of the match.

Mark van Bommel’s side finished third behind France and Italy in the 2024-25 Nations League and must beat Italy at the King Baudouin Stadium to avoid a repeat. Only the top two teams in each group progress.

Italy have the advantage. Roberto Mancini’s side have won three of their four matches since losing 2-0 at home to Belgium on the opening day and need only a draw to guarantee at least second place.

They moved top of Group 1 by beating France 3-1 at San Siro on Thursday. Following a 1-1 draw in Paris earlier in the campaign, France took an early lead in Milan with the help of Gianluigi Donnarumma, but Italy recovered.

Francesco Pio Esposito equalised at his home stadium before his brother Sebastiano missed a penalty. Davide Frattesi then put Italy ahead, before Pio Esposito converted a second spot-kick.

Italy’s victory over France was their first on home soil against them since 1962. Both teams have 10 points, one more than Belgium, and can qualify for the next stage by avoiding defeat on Sunday. Italy are above France on head-to-head record.

Team news and predictions

Belgium remain without Real Madrid goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois, who is taking a break from international football this season. Lammens, Mike Penders, Maarten Vandevoordt and Jari De Busser are competing for the position.

Youri Tielemans is expected to captain the side and play in midfield alongside De Bruyne. Romeo Lavia could return after serving his suspension, although Nicolas Raskin may retain his place. With Romelu Lukaku short of fitness and Hugo Cuypers having made his first Belgium appearance at the age of 29, De Ketelaere is likely to lead the attack.

Pio Esposito, who has scored nine goals in his first 14 senior Italy appearances, is expected to start up front. Frattesi, who recently scored his 10th goal for the national team, should feature in midfield.

Italy are without the injured Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Giacomo Raspadori and Moise Kean, while Nicolo Zaniolo is unavailable for personal reasons. Mattia Liberali, Alphadjo Cisse, who has scored eight club goals in 13 matches this season, and Marco Palestra are among the younger players called up. Palestra could compete with Brentford’s Michael Kayode for the right-back position.

Despite a recent dip in form, Donnarumma remains Italy’s undisputed first-choice goalkeeper.

Belgium’s Nations League form is VDVDV, while Italy’s is DVNVV. Suggested bets are both teams to score and more than 2.5 goals at 1.68, De Bruyne to score or assist at 2.05, and Jeremy Doku to have a decisive contribution at 2.50.

With four points from two matches against France, Italy travel to Brussels in confident mood and need only avoid defeat to reach the knockout stage.