France can seal Nations League progress and top spot against Italy

France travel to Milan to face Italy on Thursday with qualification for the Nations League quarter-finals and first place in Group A both within reach.

Zinedine Zidane’s side lead the group with 10 points from four matches. Italy have seven points, Belgium six, while Turkiye are bottom without a point.

A draw at San Siro would be enough for France to guarantee a finish in the top two and secure their place in the quarter-finals, according to French network RMC. That would remove the need to wait for the final round of fixtures, when Italy and Belgium meet in Brussels on Sunday.

France drew 1-1 with Italy in the reverse fixture. Lucas da Cunha made an error which led to Italy’s equaliser, but France now have the opportunity to secure their progress and potentially settle the group before the final match.

How France can finish top

A victory in Milan would confirm France as Group A winners, leaving no possibility of them being overtaken on points. That could allow Zidane to make changes and give some younger players an opportunity when France host Turkiye in Bordeaux three days later.

However, France could also win the group with a draw, provided they score at least two goals and avoid defeat. The Nations League rules use head-to-head records to separate teams level on points.

France’s qualification and group-position scenarios are:

– Draw with Italy: France qualify for the quarter-finals. They also finish top if they score at least two goals. – Beat Italy: France qualify and are confirmed as group winners. – Lose to Italy: France remain in contention for both qualification and first place, with one match still to play.

If France lose in Milan, they will have a second chance when they host Turkiye on Sunday. A victory against Turkiye would guarantee France a quarter-final place. It would also secure top spot if Italy draw with or lose to Belgium.

The first meeting between France and Italy ended 1-1, while France currently hold a three-point advantage over their opponents. Belgium’s result against Turkiye and the later meeting between Italy and Belgium will therefore remain relevant if France fail to complete their objective in Milan.

France enter the match with control of their own fate and a relatively favourable position in the standings. A point would be enough to guarantee qualification, while victory would complete the job at the earliest opportunity and remove the need for a final-day calculation.

The match in Milan is scheduled for Thursday evening, 12 November 2026. France’s final Group A fixture against Turkiye will take place in Bordeaux on Sunday.