Italy v France: Mbappe-backed visitors can seal Nations League top spot

France can secure first place in Group 1 of the UEFA Nations League when they visit Italy at San Siro on Thursday, with Kylian Mbappe the leading candidate to score in a match between two of European football’s heavyweight sides.

The teams drew 1-1 in Paris earlier in the campaign. France have since taken 10 points from four matches, while Italy are second on seven, three behind the leaders and one ahead of Belgium. A draw would also be enough for France to qualify for the knockout stage if Belgium drop points against Turkey.

The recommended bets are France to win with fewer than 4.5 goals at 2.03, Mbappe to score at 1.95, and Desire Doue to score or provide an assist at 2.30.

Roberto Mancini’s second spell in charge of Italy began with a disappointing 2-0 defeat by Belgium, but the UEFA Euro 2020 winners responded with a 4-1 victory in Turkey before holding France.

Gianluigi Donnarumma made seven saves in that draw, and Italy defeated Turkey again three days later, winning 3-1 through goals from Gianluca Scamacca, Riccardo Calafiori and Pio Esposito. The latter has scored seven goals in 13 senior international appearances.

Italy face another demanding fixture after Thursday’s match, travelling to Brussels for a potentially decisive meeting with Belgium.

Zinedine Zidane took over France from Didier Deschamps this summer, having waited longer than Mancini before becoming a national manager. “Zizou” spent five years at Juventus and famously faced Italy in the 2006 World Cup final, his final match as a player.

France and Italy each won 3-1 away from home in the 2024-25 Nations League, but France lead 4-2 in the head-to-head record since Italy won the 2006 final on penalties.

France’s recent form is VVNV, while Italy’s is DVNV. The visitors’ only dropped points came against Italy, with further victories over Belgium and Turkey. In their latest game, France overturned Belgium in Paris after Michael Olise’s brief appearance helped spark four goals in 15 minutes.

Italy’s squad has been weakened by the absences of Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Giacomo Raspadori, Moise Kean and Roma defender Gianluca Mancini, who withdrew with a muscular injury. Juventus centre-back Federico Gatti replaces him, while Matteo Palma of Udinese is among the young players called up.

Mattia Liberali earned his first senior call-up after scoring in Como’s 9-1 Champions League defeat of Lens. He joins AC Milan winger Alphadjo Cisse, who has eight goals in 13 matches, including a Serie A double against Bologna and a “perfect” Europa League hat-trick. Riccardo Cassano, 17, and Simone Lontani, 18, have trained with the squad before joining Italy’s youth teams. Marco Palestra of Chelsea is also fit again, while Nicolo Zaniolo withdrew for personal reasons.

France are without Esteban Lepaul and Marcus Thuram through injury, while Aurelien Tchouameni, William Saliba, Maghnes Akliouche, Ousmane Dembele and Manu Kone are unavailable. Ibrahima Konate returns, and Dayot Upamecano is expected back after serving a suspension for his red card against Italy last month. Pierre Kalulu has a hamstring injury, leaving Sael Kumbedi and Malo Gusto competing at right-back.

Despite Italy’s encouraging rebuild, their defence could be exposed by France, while their recent San Siro record is mixed after almost a century without defeat there. France are therefore tipped to claim a fourth win in five Group 1 matches and progress comfortably to the knockout stage.