Bafana Bafana face uneven Afcon qualifying battle against Kenya

South Africa face two crucial Africa Cup of Nations 2027 qualifiers against Kenya this week, but their opponents have already secured a place at the tournament as co-hosts alongside Uganda and Tanzania.

That leaves Pitso Mosimane’s Bafana Bafana under the full pressure of qualification, while Kenya can use the two matches to develop tactical systems and assess squad depth without any risk of elimination.

Regardless of the outcome across the 180 minutes, the Harambee Stars are guaranteed to reach the finals. For South Africa, every dropped point could directly damage their hopes of qualifying.

The arrangement stems from a Confederation of African Football (CAF) regulation adopted at its 2017 symposium in Rabat. In a standard four-team Africa Cup of Nations qualifying group, the top two teams advance. However, when an automatic host is included, only the highest-placed non-host qualifies.

As a result, Kenya remain an active part of Group D and can influence which of the other three nations progresses, despite being unable to lose their own place at the tournament.

CAF progress, but qualifying rule remains

The issue exists alongside significant administrative and commercial progress under CAF president Dr Patrice Motsepe. The organisation has strengthened its financial governance, moved from historic operational deficits to surpluses and substantially increased prize money for both men’s and women’s football.

The launch of the African Football League, improved television production and major commercial sponsorships have also raised the profile of the continental game.

The 2017 rule was intended to prevent host nations from spending years playing only low-profile friendlies during FIFA international windows. It also aimed to give broadcasters a complete package of televised matches. In practice, however, it creates an imbalance in the qualifying competition.

Other confederations have taken different approaches. Germany were excluded from the Euro 2024 qualifying draw and played standalone friendlies as hosts. France were included in a five-team group before Euro 2016, but their matches were designated centralised friendlies, meaning their points and goals did not count and the qualification prospects of Portugal, Albania, Denmark and Armenia were unaffected.

Concacaf links Gold Cup qualification to the Nations League, where teams face consequences through promotion, relegation or qualification. In Asia, hosts involved in preliminary rounds have done so within a joint system in which FIFA World Cup qualification was also at stake.

CAF is therefore the only continental governing body described in the article as allowing an already-qualified host to play official group qualifiers that can eliminate rivals while carrying no mathematical jeopardy.

South Africa’s Group D challenge

Bafana Bafana lead Group D with six points after beating Guinea and Eritrea. Two victories over Kenya would take them to 12 points and leave them close to qualification with two rounds remaining.

Dropped points, though, would give Guinea and Eritrea an opportunity. If Kenya take points from South Africa before later losing points to Guinea, the standings could move against Bafana through circumstances outside their direct control.

The situation is made more notable by Benni McCarthy’s presence in the Kenyan dugout. South Africa’s all-time leading goalscorer and a UEFA Champions League winner, McCarthy faces his home country while being able to test combinations, formations and squad depth without the threat of elimination.

CAF’s next step, the article argues, should be to revise the regulation by removing already-qualified hosts’ matches from the official points table and restoring competitive balance.