Ethiopia v Senegal: Can Patrick Vieira’s side overcome Baher Dar test?

Senegal will look to secure their first win in the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers when they face Ethiopia in Baher Dar on Tuesday, 29 September 2026, at 13:00 GMT.

Nasser Eddy, a consultant for NCI Sport and presenter of the European Champions League on Radio Nostalgie, expects the visitors’ greater experience to prove decisive, with Senegal priced at 1.32 to win.

Ethiopia began their campaign with a 1-0 defeat by Sudan on Friday. The Walya have only six matches in the group, from which the top two qualify for PAMOJA 2027, and have little room for further mistakes. Mozambique are also in the section.

Once a leading force in the early history of the Africa Cup of Nations, including victory in 1962, one final and three semi-final appearances, Ethiopia have struggled in recent decades. They have made only two appearances at the finals this century, exiting in the first round on both occasions, most recently in Cameroon in 2021.

They have, however, avoided heavy defeats against stronger opposition in the past two years. Although they have lost to Egypt, Burkina-Faso and Sudan, they have not been beaten by more than two goals in an official match during that period.

Ethiopia could also benefit from playing at altitude, where the thinner air is more familiar to the home side than their opponents. About 60,000 supporters are expected at Baher Dar stadium.

Senegal were held to a surprising 1-1 draw by Mozambique in their opening qualifier, with Nicolas Jackson scoring their goal. Patrick Vieira’s team need a victory to stay close to Sudan and could move ahead of them if Sudan drop points.

The Senegal side is adapting to the international retirements of Kalidou Koulibaly and Sadio Mane. The Africa Cup of Nations runners-up – pending the final verdict of the Court of Arbitration for Sport in the coming days – also endured a frustrating World Cup, losing in the last 16 after coming close to notable results against France, Norway and Belgium.

Senegal have scored in each of their past 12 official matches, finding the net at least twice in six of those games. They have also averaged 7.5 corners in their last four competitive fixtures.

The teams have met four times, with Senegal winning three and Ethiopia one, in 1963. Senegal won both encounters in the 1998 Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers, prevailing 2-1 in the first leg and 3-0 in the return. Their overall goals record is 11-4 in Senegal’s favour.

Jackson, who has regularly faced criticism for his finishing, is expected to lead the visitors’ attack again. Following Mane’s retirement, the Aston Villa forward has taken on greater responsibility and will carry Senegal’s hopes after scoring in Mozambique.

The key 1xBet prices are Senegal to win at 1.32, a 0-2 scoreline at 5.5, Jackson to score at any time at 2.3, and Senegal to win more than 6.5 corners at 1.64. Odds may change.