Lazio v AC Milan: both teams to score backed at 1.92 in Serie A clash

Lazio host AC Milan at Rome’s Stadio Olimpico on Saturday, 12 September, in a fourth-day Serie A meeting between two sides targeting European football. Both teams are initially described as having two wins and six points, although the match preview later lists Lazio third on nine points and AC Milan fifth on seven. Mahamad Sangare, presenter of the sports debate programme La VAR on Burkina Info TV, has given his assessment and predictions.

The two clubs have made strong starts and the betting market reflects a closely contested match. Lazio have won four of their past five league games, including victories over Udinese, Genoa and Bologna, scoring six goals and conceding four. AC Milan have recorded three wins and a draw in their last five matches, scoring nine and allowing seven.

Form guide

Lazio finished ninth last season and are aiming for European qualification after replacing Maurizio Sarri with Gennaro Gattuso. Their opening league results have been narrow victories: 1-0 against Genoa, 0-1 at Bologna and 1-2 away to Udinese last weekend.

AC Milan ended the previous campaign fifth, one point behind fourth, and missed out on the Champions League after a poor final run. New manager Ruben Amorim has been given the task of guiding the Rossoneri into the top four in 2026/2027.

Milan began with wins over Torino, 1-2, and Venezia, 2-0, before drawing 1-1 at Juventus last weekend.

Lazio have reshaped their squad, with goalkeeper Provedel joining Inter, defender Gila moving to AC Milan, midfielder Basic going to Venezia and forwards Dia and Ratkov departing for Rennes and Levante respectively. Gigot, Hysaj and Pedro are without clubs, while Maldini has returned to Atalanta after an unsuccessful loan spell.

Their arrivals include defenders Sutalo, Doekhi and Pedraza from Ajax, Union Berlin and Villarreal, midfielder Frattesi from Inter, and forwards Pinamonti and Gudmundsson from Sassuolo and Fiorentina. Frattesi, an Italy international, has scored three Serie A goals and has found the net in each of the opening three rounds. Gudmundsson scored after coming off the bench against Udinese, while captain Zaccagni provided an assist.

Lazio will be without reserve goalkeeper Furlanetto and defenders Patric, Marusic and Pellegrini. Midfielders Rovella, Cataldi and Dele-Bashiru are also injured.

Milan have permanently transferred Jimenez, Pobega, Morata and Colombo, who were already away from the club last season. Fullkrug was not retained after returning from his loan at West Ham. Odogu, Atekhame, Fofana, Ricci, Leao, Gimenez and Nkunku have also left for Toulouse, OL, Sevilla, Como, Galatasaray, Porto and Leipzig.

The Rossoneri signed Ramos from PSG, Moreira from Strasbourg, Gila from Lazio, Diawara from Troyes and Hutchinson from Nottingham Forest. Gabbia remains injured, but Maignan, Rabiot, Modric and Ramos are available. Rabiot has one goal and one assist in Serie A, while Ramos has scored once. Cisse, who has two goals, scored as a substitute last weekend.

Head-to-head and betting

Milan lead the overall record with 32 wins to Lazio’s 15 across 68 meetings. However, Lazio have won two of the last three, including 1-0 at the Olimpico in March 2026. The December 2025 meeting also ended 1-0 to the Romans.

The average in this fixture is 1.83 goals per match, and Lazio have won their last two meetings with Milan 1-0. Over their previous five games, Lazio have four wins and one defeat, while Milan have three wins, one draw and one defeat.

The available prices are Milan to win at 2.25, both teams to score at 1.92, over 1.5 goals at 1.40 and over 8.5 corners at 1.83.

The recommended selections are both teams to score at 1.92, AC Milan or draw at 1.36, and under 3.5 goals at 1.22. The assessment is that Milan’s attacking strength and Lazio’s defensive organisation make an away win or draw more likely than a comfortable home victory, while four goals are considered unlikely.

Odds may change.