Opta model puts Arsenal on top as Paris Saint-Germain target unprecedented Champions League treble

Arsenal have been identified as the leading contenders to win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League, according to Opta’s supercomputer, while reigning champions Paris Saint-Germain have been ranked only fourth in the forecast.

The prediction is based on 10,000 simulations of the forthcoming competition. Arsenal were given a 21.2% chance of lifting the trophy, narrowly ahead of Bayern Munich on 19.9%. Manchester City were third with a 12% probability.

Arsenal’s position reflects their impressive European campaign last season. Mikel Arteta’s side reached the final, where they were beaten by Paris Saint-Germain on penalties. Despite that defeat, the team’s overall performances were enough for Opta’s statistical model to place them above the rest of the field before the new campaign begins.

Paris Saint-Germain face statistical challenge

Paris Saint-Germain, who won the most recent Champions League final, were given a 7.7% chance of retaining the trophy. That placed them fourth in the rankings, despite their success in the past two editions of the competition.

The French club are aiming to make history by winning the Champions League for a third consecutive season. However, Opta’s figures suggest their prospects are significantly less favourable than those of Arsenal, Bayern Munich and Manchester City.

Barcelona occupy fifth place in the prediction with a 7% chance of winning the tournament. Their position puts them ahead of Spanish rivals Real Madrid, who were rated at 5.1%.

Liverpool received the same 5.1% probability as Real Madrid and shared sixth place in the forecast.

Barcelona face a difficult route through the competition from the outset, with a number of high-profile matches against leading European clubs expected to form part of their campaign. Their ranking reflects the challenge posed by those fixtures, despite their position above Real Madrid in Opta’s assessment.

Real Madrid, meanwhile, enter the tournament seeking to restore their status among Europe’s leading clubs. The six-time winners of the competition, however, have been placed lower than Barcelona in the supercomputer’s calculations.

The forecast does not determine the eventual outcome, but it provides an early statistical assessment of the teams’ chances before the 2026-27 Champions League begins. Arsenal lead the list after coming close to the trophy last season, while Paris Saint-Germain’s attempt to complete a historic hat-trick of titles starts with the holders rated outside the top three.