Arsenal lead Opta’s first Champions League forecast as Spanish clubs face early danger

Opta’s opening predictions for the new Champions League campaign have placed Arsenal ahead of Barcelona and Real Madrid as the leading contenders for the trophy, while warning that Spain could lose two of its five representatives before the knockout phase.

The statistical model, highlighted by Spanish newspaper Marca, forecasts that Real Betis and Villarreal will be eliminated during the league phase. Atletico Madrid are predicted to finish 22nd among the 24 teams expected to progress to the knockout stages.

If Atletico Madrid finish in that position, they would have to play in the knockout phase play-off. That could leave the Spanish club facing a difficult opponent to secure a place in the last 16.

The outlook is considerably more positive for Barcelona and Real Madrid. Opta expects Barcelona to finish fourth in the league phase and Real Madrid seventh, which would send both clubs directly through to the last 16 without requiring them to take part in the play-off round.

Barcelona have also been given a greater chance than Real Madrid of reaching the final. Opta’s model puts Barcelona’s prospects of appearing in the showpiece at 14.41%, compared with 10.39% for Real Madrid.

The predicted top eight in the league phase are Bayern Munich, Arsenal, Manchester City, Barcelona, Liverpool, Paris Saint-Germain, Real Madrid and Inter Milan, in that order.

Arsenal are the model’s leading choice to win the competition, with a 21.18% chance of lifting the trophy. Bayern Munich are next on 19.90%, followed by Manchester City on 12.03%.

Barcelona are the highest-ranked Spanish club in terms of their chances of winning the Champions League, with a probability of 6.97%. Real Madrid are given a 5.13% chance.

Atletico Madrid’s prospects are rated at 0.60%, while Villarreal are given a 0.26% chance and Real Betis just 0.17%.

The forecast also offers limited encouragement to Paris Saint-Germain, despite the French club being the reigning European champions for the past two editions of the competition. Paris Saint-Germain are targeting a third consecutive Champions League title, but Opta estimates their chance of achieving that feat at 7.73%.

Real Madrid remain the only club in Champions League history to win the trophy three times in succession. Paris Saint-Germain are attempting to match that achievement this season.

The new campaign begins on Tuesday, when the league phase of the Champions League gets under way. Opta’s predictions are based on its statistical model and represent an early assessment of the teams’ prospects rather than a definitive outcome.