When Senegal and Morocco step onto the pitch in Rabat for the TotalEnergies CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025 final, history suggests one thing above all else: expect tension, patience — and possibly extra time.
Africa Cup of Nations finals have long been defined by caution rather than chaos, with many of the tournament’s biggest moments coming not from goal rushes, but from nerve-shredding stalemates settled late or on penalties.
A final built on fine margins
Since 2002, nine of the last 12 AFCON finals have ended either 1–0 or 0–0, underlining how difficult it is to separate teams when the stakes are highest.
In that same period, five finals have gone to penalties, all following goalless draws after 120 minutes — a pattern that has turned AFCON showpieces into tests of composure as much as quality.
The evidence suggests that when teams reach the final, risk becomes a luxury few are willing to take.
History favours the cautious
Across AFCON history, 12 of the 32 finals have gone to extra time, with nine eventually decided by penalty shoot-outs.
In fact, the last time a final involving penalties featured goals after extra time was in 2000. Since then, every shoot-out final has ended 0–0 after 120 minutes — a remarkable statistic that highlights how defences tighten as fatigue sets in.
For players and coaches, the logic is clear: one mistake can cost a title.
Why finals are different
AFCON finals are rarely played at full throttle.
Players carry the physical toll of a long tournament, suspensions thin squads, and fear of losing often outweighs desire to dominate. Tactical discipline replaces flair, and moments — not momentum — decide outcomes.
This edition’s finalists reflect that trend perfectly.
Senegal have conceded just two goals in six matches, while Morocco have allowed only one, keeping five clean sheets. Both sides are built to control space, manage tempo and survive difficult phases.
Penalties: Africa’s ultimate lottery
AFCON has developed a unique relationship with penalty shoot-outs.
Nine finals have been decided from the spot, beginning with Ghana’s dramatic win over Libya in 1982. Since then, penalties have crowned champions in 2002, 2006, 2012, 2015 and 2021.
For Senegal, the memories are recent — their first title in 2021 came via penalties against Egypt. For Morocco, shoot-outs have historically been cruel, though their semi-final win over Nigeria may have shifted that narrative.
What it means for Sunday
Statistics alone do not decide football matches — but they shape expectations.
With both teams defensively elite, tactically disciplined and comfortable without the ball, Sunday’s final fits the classic AFCON pattern: a game of restraint, resilience and razor-thin margins.
If the title is decided from the penalty spot once again, it would simply confirm what AFCON finals have taught us for decades — that Africa’s biggest prize is never given away easily.
